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AFC Bournemouth – Leeds United2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
AFC Bournemouth
1.83
Total xG
2.88
Leeds United
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | AFC Bournemouth | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.52x league average) | +1.05 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.70 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.59 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap) | −0.25 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| 21% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: AFC Bournemouth won 4 of their last 5 matches, Leeds United won 1 of their last 5 matches
- Attack: AFC Bournemouth scored 2.4 goals per game in their last 5 matches, Leeds United 1.2 goals per game
Risks
- Table: Leeds United are 7th in the league this season with 11 points in 8 games, AFC Bournemouth 13th with 9 points
- Defence: Leeds United have conceded 0.75 goals per game away in the league this season in 4 games
All probabilities
Result
AFC Bournemouth54%
Draw26%
Leeds United20%
Double chance
AFC Bournemouth or draw80%
Leeds United or draw46%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.83 : 1.05, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Leeds United with Ao Tanaka starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (18/8 games, last 30)
- Leeds United: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- AFC Bournemouth: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 21)
- AFC Bournemouth: 62% of all goals in the first half (13 of 21, last 12 games)
- Leeds United: 36% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 14)
Lineups
AFC Bournemouth 4-2-3-1 · Leeds United 3-4-2-1
AFC Bournemouth
- 1 Đ. Petrović
- 15 A. Smith
- 5 J. Hill
- 14 A. Tavares Silva
- 3 A. Truffert
- 12 T. Adams
- 10 R. Christie
- 37 R. Rocha
- 19 J. Kluivert
- 16 M. Tavernier
- 9 F. de Lima Barbosa
Leeds United
- 1 J. Trafford
- 24 J. Justin
- 30 N. Elvedi
- 5 T. Muharemovic
- 2 J. Bogle
- 4 E. Ampadu
- 22 A. Tanaka
- 3 G. Gudmundsson
- 10 H. Wilson
- 7 D. James
- 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
Substitutes
- 30 ?. Rodríguez Muñoz
- 22 E. Kroupi
- 18 B. Diakité
- 21 A. Adli
- 11 B. Doak
- 6 J. Soler Barreto
- 4 L. Cook
- 7 D. Brooks
- 20 M. Di Gregorio
- 16 M. Zetterer
- 23 J. Bahoya
- 26 M. Bard
- 44 I. Gruev
- 11 B. Aaronson
- 18 A. Stach
- 8 S. Longstaff
- 14 L. Nmecha
- 15 J. Bijol
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