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Manchester City – Brighton & Hove Albion0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Manchester City
1.83
Total xG
3.00
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Manchester City | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.8x league average) | +1.15 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.71 | |
| Attack strength (1.29x league average) | +0.49 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.29 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rayan Cherki on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Marc Guéhi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/away: Manchester City average 2.75 goals per game at home in the league this season, Brighton concede 1.5 away per game
- Table: Manchester City sit top of the league this season with 7 wins from 8 games
Risks
- Head-to-head: Brighton are unbeaten in the 4 meetings since 2024 with 2 wins and 2 draws
- Away: Brighton average 2.5 goals per game away from home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Manchester City51%
Draw26%
Brighton & Hove Albion23%
Double chance
Manchester City or draw77%
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw49%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.83 : 1.17, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brighton & Hove Albion with Yasin Ayari starting: 2.3 goals/game, without him: 1 (13/9 games, last 30)
- Manchester City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Manchester City: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Brighton & Hove Albion: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Manchester City 4-3-3 · Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1
Manchester City
- 1 G. Donnarumma
- 27 M. Nunes
- 45 A. Khusanov
- 3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
- 24 J. Gvardiol
- 32 A. Bouaddi
- 5 E. Anderson
- 17 E. Fernández
- 7 I. Ndiaye
- 9 E. Haaland
- 11 J. Doku
Brighton & Hove Albion
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 20 J. da Costa
- 44 L. Vušković
- 5 L. Dunk
- 21 O. Boscagli
- 13 P. Groß
- 14 J. Andrés Baixauli
- 25 D. Gómez Amarilla
- 26 Y. Ayari
- 29 M. De Cuyper
- 19 C. Kostoulas
Substitutes
- 22 V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
- 28 G. Rulli
- 6 M. Guehi
- 47 P. Foden
- 8 M. Kovačić
- 10 M. Cherki
- 82 R. Lewis
- 33 N. O'Reilly
- 37 A. Andrade Elias
- 11 Y. Minteh
- 27 M. Wieffer
- 23 J. Steele
- 8 J. Hinshelwood
- 10 G. Rutter
- 3 J. Hadjam
- 33 M. O'Riley
- 35 M. Junior Yalcouyé
- 30 M. Svoboda
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