Match report →
Chelsea – Manchester United2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Chelsea
1.49
Total xG
2.99
Manchester United
1.51
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Chelsea | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 5, 11 places gap) | −0.42 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.42 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.34 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.34 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.19 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 16, 11 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| João Pedro not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jordan Henderson on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jorrel Hato not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Chelsea scores 2.75 goals per game at home in the league this season and concedes 2 goals per game
- Shots: Manchester United averaged 12.8 shots per game in recent matches, Chelsea 11.8 shots per game
- Possession: Chelsea averaged 52.4% possession per game in recent matches, Manchester United 47.8%
Risks
- Table: Chelsea is 5th in the league with 13 points from 8 games, Manchester United is 16th with 7 points
- Form: Manchester United is winless in their last 5 games with 2 draws and 3 losses
- Head-to-head: Manchester United won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Chelsea, with 1 win for Chelsea and 1 draw
All probabilities
Result
Chelsea36%
Draw27%
Manchester United37%
Double chance
Chelsea or draw63%
Manchester United or draw64%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.49 : 1.51, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chelsea: 33% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (7 of 21)
- Chelsea: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Chelsea: 2.9 cards per game (33 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Manchester United: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
- Chelsea: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Chelsea 4-2-3-1 · Manchester United 4-2-3-1
Chelsea
- 39 M. Penders
- 34 J. Acheampong
- 3 W. Fofana
- 6 L. Colwill
- 2 M. Palestra
- 45 R. Lavia
- 25 M. Caicedo Corozo
- 41 E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
- 10 C. Palmer
- 17 M. Rogers
- 7 P. Lomba Neto
Manchester United
- 1 S. Lammens
- 15 L. Yoro
- 5 H. Maguire
- 6 L. Martínez
- 2 J. Dalot Teixeira
- 20 C. Noom Quomah
- 17 A. Nascimento dos Santos
- 16 A. Traoré
- 8 B. Fernandes
- 10 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
- 19 B. Mbeumo
Substitutes
- 18 D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck
- 4 V. Barco
- 22 E. Esseh Emegha
- 14 J. Henderson
- 28 T. Sharman-Lowe
- 27 M. Gusto
- 23 G. Quenda
- 29 J. Chavarría Pérez
- 32 M. Nicoll-Jazuli
- 37 O. Subuloye
- 12 K. Darlow
- 7 M. Mount
- 37 K. Mainoo
- 11 J. Zirkzee
- 3 N. Mazraoui
- 4 M. de Ligt
- 26 A. Heaven
- 18 Y. Tielemans
- 31 S. Lacey
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