Match report →
Tottenham Hotspur – Crystal Palace2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Tottenham Hotspur
1.78
Total xG
2.80
Crystal Palace
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tottenham Hotspur | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | +0.31 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.30 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| 25% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Tottenham average 1.25 goals per game at home in the league, Crystal Palace concede 2.25 per game away
- Form: Tottenham have 2 wins from their last 5 matches, Crystal Palace 1
- Possession: Tottenham average 62% possession in their last 5 matches, Crystal Palace 46%
Risks
- Head-to-head: Crystal Palace won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Tottenham Hotspur, Tottenham 1
- Defense: Tottenham concede 1.5 goals per game at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Tottenham Hotspur54%
Draw26%
Crystal Palace20%
Double chance
Tottenham Hotspur or draw80%
Crystal Palace or draw46%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.78 : 1.02, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
10%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Crystal Palace: 39% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 18)
- Crystal Palace: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Tottenham Hotspur: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Aston Villa: 2 goals (86', 90+8')
- Tottenham Hotspur: scored only after the break in 5 of 12 games
Lineups
Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 · Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1
Tottenham Hotspur
- 31 A. Kinský
- 14 A. Gray
- 6 J. van Hecke
- 37 M. van de Ven
- 3 A. Robertson
- 16 S. Tonali
- 18 M. Espanha Fernandes
- 20 M. Kudus
- 22 O. Marmoush
- 11 M. Tel
- 19 D. Solanke
Crystal Palace
- 1 D. Henderson
- 26 C. Richards
- 5 A. Disasi
- 6 J. Canvot
- 30 Ó. Mingueza García
- 20 A. Wharton
- 18 D. Kamada
- 3 T. Mitchell
- 11 D. McNeil
- 10 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 14 J. Mateta
Substitutes
- 8 C. Gallagher
- 5 M. Senesi
- 39 M. Dúbravka
- 33 B. Davies
- 13 I. Udogie
- 21 D. Kulusevski
- 23 P. Porro Sauceda
- 10 J. Maddison
- 68 L. Williams-Barnett
- 33 B. Chilwell
- 29 E. Guessand
- 28 C. Doucoure
- 19 W. Hughes
- 44 W. Benítez
- 9 E. Nketiah
- 8 J. Lerma Solís
- 25 A. Khalaili
- 24 D. Osorio Osorio
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