Match report →
Newcastle United – Everton0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Newcastle United
1.57
Total xG
2.68
Everton
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Newcastle United | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.25 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.13 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| Yoane Wissa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Newcastle average 1.5 goals per match at home in the league this season, Everton 0.75 per match away
- Attack: Newcastle average 1.5 goals per match in the league this season, Everton scored 0.6 per match in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Head-to-head: Everton have won 2 of the 4 meetings between the sides, Newcastle 1
- Defence: Newcastle conceded 2 goals per match in their last 5 matches, Everton 1.12 per match in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Newcastle United47%
Draw28%
Everton25%
Double chance
Newcastle United or draw75%
Everton or draw53%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.58 : 1.11, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Everton: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)
- Everton: 7 of 18 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Newcastle United 4-2-3-1 · Everton 4-2-3-1
Newcastle United
- 21 L. Horníček
- 37 A. Dedić
- 5 F. Schär
- 33 D. Burn
- 3 L. Hall
- 7 J. Apolinário de Lira
- 6 N. González Iglesias
- 19 A. Elanga
- 28 J. Willock
- 11 H. Barnes
- 10 W. Osula
Everton
- 1 J. Pickford
- 15 J. O´Brien
- 6 J. Tarkowski
- 4 J. Branthwaite
- 16 V. Mykolenko
- 45 H. Armstrong
- 37 J. Garner
- 34 M. Röhl
- 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 19 T. George
- 11 T. Barry
Substitutes
- 17 B. Touré
- 8 A. Bamba
- 41 J. Ramsey
- 12 M. Thiaw
- 9 Y. Wissa
- 1 N. Pope
- 4 S. Botman
- 23 J. Murphy
- 14 S. Steur
- 2 A. Maitland-Niles
- 12 M. Travers
- 20 T. Dibling
- 5 M. Keane
- 24 C. Alcaraz
- 22 B. Johnson
- 30 H. Hackney
- 23 C. Nørgaard
- 58 B. Graham
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