Match report →
Hull City – Ipswich Town2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Hull City
1.08
Total xG
2.57
Ipswich Town
1.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Hull City | Ipswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.42 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.04 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Hull City are winless in their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 losses), while Ipswich Town won 2
- Attack: Ipswich Town score 1.75 goals per game away in the league this season, Hull City conceded 1.6 per game in their last 5
Risks
- Defence: Hull City concede 0.75 goals per game at home in the league this season, Ipswich Town 2.75 away per game
- xG: Ipswich Town allowed 1.95 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 1.6 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Hull City26%
Draw29%
Ipswich Town45%
Double chance
Hull City or draw55%
Ipswich Town or draw74%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.08 : 1.48, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ipswich Town: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Fulham: 2 goals (88', 90+1')
- Hull City: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Ipswich Town: 6 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Hull City 5-4-1 · Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1
Hull City
- 19 K. Tzolakis
- 2 L. Coyle
- 6 O. Ibidapo Ajayi
- 15 J. Egan
- 32 N. Mendy
- 3 R. Giles
- 10 M. Belloumi
- 42 T. Iroegbunam
- 27 R. Slater
- 21 E. Stroud
- 9 O. McBurnie
Ipswich Town
- 28 C. Walton
- 42 G. Ouattara
- 26 D. O'Shea
- 6 I. Diop
- 3 L. Davis
- 12 F. Morris Luís
- 25 E. Palacios
- 7 A. Issahaku
- 10 J. Enciso
- 11 J. Philogene-Bidace
- 19 E. Correia da Silva
Substitutes
- 50 M. Cho
- 11 J. Gelhardt
- 25 M. Crooks
- 12 D. Phillips
- 36 C. Mouzakitis
- 5 H. Morita
- 18 B. Norton-Cuffy
- 17 P. McNair
- 22 L. Herrington
- 9 Z. Flemming
- 32 M. Nuñez
- 2 D. Furlong
- 29 C. Akpom
- 5 A. Matusiwa
- 47 J. Clarke
- 24 J. Greaves
- 37 K. Scherpen
- 38 D. Maeda
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