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Brighton & Hove Albion – Brentford2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Brighton & Hove Albion
2.04
Total xG
3.03
Brentford
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Brighton & Hove Albion | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.5x league average) | +1.40 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.88 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.38 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Jaidon Anthony on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Yegor Yarmolyuk on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.3 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Brighton average 3.25 goals per game at home in the league, Brentford concede 1.5 goals per game away
- Table: Brighton rank 3rd in the league with 19 points from 9 games, Brentford are 7th with 14 points from 9 games
- Possession: Brighton averaged 58.4% possession per game in their last 5 games, Brentford 45.6% per game
Risks
- Rest days: Brighton have had 3 days since their last game, Brentford 8 days
- Form: Brentford have suffered 1 defeat in 9 league games this season, with 3 wins and 5 draws
All probabilities
Result
Brighton & Hove Albion60%
Draw23%
Brentford16%
Double chance
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw84%
Brentford or draw40%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.04 : 0.99, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brighton & Hove Albion with Yasin Ayari starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1 (14/8 games, last 30)
- Brighton & Hove Albion: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Brentford: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (11 points lost)
- Brentford: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 · Brentford 4-4-2
Brighton & Hove Albion
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 20 J. da Costa
- 44 L. Vušković
- 5 L. Dunk
- 21 O. Boscagli
- 13 P. Groß
- 14 J. Andrés Baixauli
- 25 D. Gómez Amarilla
- 26 Y. Ayari
- 29 M. De Cuyper
- 19 C. Kostoulas
Brentford
- 1 C. Kelleher
- 33 M. Kayode
- 20 K. Vassbakk Ajer
- 4 S. van den Berg
- 2 A. Hickey
- 11 Dango Ouattara
- 18 M. Sangare
- 27 V. Janelt
- 23 K. Lewis-Potter
- 9 Thiago
- 7 K. Schade
Substitutes
- 11 Y. Minteh
- 27 M. Wieffer
- 23 J. Steele
- 8 J. Hinshelwood
- 10 G. Rutter
- 24 F. Kadıoğlu
- 3 J. Hadjam
- 35 M. Junior Yalcouyé
- 30 M. Svoboda
- 22 N. Collins
- 24 M. Damsgaard
- 8 M. Jensen
- 12 H. Valdimarsson
- 6 Y. Yarmoliuk
- 25 E. Diouf
- 13 C. Wilson
- 19 J. Anthony
- 44 J. Schuster
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