Match report →
Fulham – Newcastle United1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Fulham
1.65
Total xG
2.84
Newcastle United
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fulham | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | +0.58 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.37 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.22 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Joe Willock on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Fulham average 1.5 goals per game at home in the league this season, Newcastle United concede 2 per game away
- Head-to-head: Fulham won 3 of the 4 direct meetings against Newcastle United
- Shots on target: Fulham average 5 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Newcastle United 3.2 per game
Risks
- Attack/Defense: Newcastle United score 1.5 goals per game away in the league this season, Fulham concede 1.75 at home
- Table: Newcastle United have 11 points in 9 games in the league this season, Fulham 9 points in 9 games
All probabilities
Result
Fulham47%
Draw27%
Newcastle United26%
Double chance
Fulham or draw74%
Newcastle United or draw53%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.65 : 1.19, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
Lineups
Fulham 4-2-3-1 · Newcastle United 4-2-3-1
Fulham
- 1 B. Leno
- 21 T. Castagne
- 22 D. Affengruber
- 3 C. Bassey
- 33 A. Robinson
- 16 S. Berge
- 19 S. Charles
- 14 O. Bobb
- 24 J. King
- 17 A. Iwobi
- 7 G. García Torres
Newcastle United
- 21 L. Horníček
- 37 A. Dedić
- 12 M. Thiaw
- 33 D. Burn
- 3 L. Hall
- 14 S. Steur
- 6 N. González Iglesias
- 23 J. Murphy
- 9 Y. Wissa
- 11 H. Barnes
- 10 W. Osula
Substitutes
- 23 B. Lecomte
- 11 Kevin
- 30 K. Sessegnon
- 9 Rodrigo Muniz
- 5 J. Andersen
- 2 K. Tete
- 15 H. Larsson
- 20 Manuel Ibanez
- 8 C. Palacios Pérez
- 17 B. Touré
- 20 M. Fernandez Pardo
- 19 A. Elanga
- 1 N. Pope
- 5 F. Schär
- 4 S. Botman
- 67 L. Miley
- 2 V. Livramento
- 28 J. Willock
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