Match report →
Sunderland – Chelsea1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Sunderland
1.33
Total xG
2.71
Chelsea
1.39
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sunderland | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 4, 16 places gap) | −0.44 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.22 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.18 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 20, 16 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Nilson Angulo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.3 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Possession: Sunderland averaged 52.2% possession per match in their last 5 matches, Chelsea 50.4% per match
- Attack: Sunderland recorded 1.50 xG per match in the league this season, Chelsea 1.46 per match
Risks
- Table: Chelsea are 4th in the league this season with 16 points in 9 matches, Sunderland 20th with 5 points
- Personnel: J. Junqueira de Jesus is absent, having scored 5 of the 19 league goals for Chelsea players this season (26%)
All probabilities
Result
Sunderland34%
Draw29%
Chelsea37%
Double chance
Sunderland or draw63%
Chelsea or draw66%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.33 : 1.39, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chelsea: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Sunderland: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Sunderland with Brian Brobbey starting: 1.1 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (21/7 games, last 30)
- Enzo Le Fée: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Chelsea: 32% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (7 of 22)
- Chelsea: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Sunderland 4-2-3-1 · Chelsea 4-3-2-1
Sunderland
- 22 R. Roefs
- 12 T. Meunier
- 20 N. Mukiele Mulere
- 13 L. O'Nien
- 17 R. Mandava
- 34 G. Xhaka
- 27 N. Sadiki
- 32 T. Hume
- 28 E. Le Fée
- 7 C. Talbi
- 9 B. Brobbey
Chelsea
- 39 M. Penders
- 2 M. Palestra
- 3 W. Fofana
- 6 L. Colwill
- 29 J. Chavarría Pérez
- 25 M. Caicedo Corozo
- 45 R. Lavia
- 14 J. Henderson
- 10 C. Palmer
- 17 M. Rogers
- 7 P. Lomba Neto
Substitutes
- 6 D. Methalie
- 39 M. Fofana
- 18 W. Isidor
- 11 C. Rigg
- 4 K. Danso
- 31 M. Ellborg
- 10 N. Angulo Ramírez
- 57 T. Tuterov
- 29 J. Ahoka Jules
- 18 D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck
- 30 A. Anselmino
- 4 V. Barco
- 22 E. Esseh Emegha
- 28 T. Sharman-Lowe
- 41 E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
- 27 M. Gusto
- 34 J. Acheampong
- 23 G. Quenda
- 32 M. Nicoll-Jazuli
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