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Nottingham Forest – Manchester City3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Nottingham Forest
0.99
Total xG
3.06
Manchester City
2.07
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nottingham Forest | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.98 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.66 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 2, 17 places gap) | −0.33 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.29 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.29 | |
| Attack strength (1.39x league average) | +0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 19, 17 places gap) | +0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Dan Ndoye on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 37% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Phil Foden on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Manchester City averages 2.25 goals per away game in the league, Nottingham Forest scored 0 goals in 4 home games
- Table: Manchester City ranks 2nd with 7 wins from 9 league games, Nottingham Forest is 19th with 1 win from 9 league games
Risks
- Defense: Manchester City allowed 0.94 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 1.6 goals per game
- Match interval: Manchester City with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Nottingham Forest16%
Draw23%
Manchester City61%
Double chance
Nottingham Forest or draw39%
Manchester City or draw84%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.00 : 2.07, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
0:2
10%
0:3
7%
1:3
7%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nottingham Forest: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (9 points lost)
- Manchester City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Nottingham Forest: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1 · Manchester City 4-2-3-1
Nottingham Forest
- 26 M. Sels
- 23 J. da Cunha Filho
- 31 N. Milenković
- 5 M. Santiago Costa dos Santos
- 27 D. Muñoz Mejía
- 21 X. Schlager
- 22 R. Yates
- 3 N. Williams
- 24 J. Mcatee
- 10 M. Gibbs-White
- 19 L. Delap
Manchester City
- 1 G. Donnarumma
- 45 A. Khusanov
- 3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
- 6 M. Guehi
- 24 J. Gvardiol
- 17 E. Fernández
- 5 E. Anderson
- 7 I. Ndiaye
- 10 M. Cherki
- 11 J. Doku
- 9 E. Haaland
Substitutes
- 25 L. Netz
- 12 J. Furtado
- 15 A. Muinga
- 14 D. Ndoye
- 11 I. da Cruz
- 7 C. Hudson-Odoi
- 6 I. Sangaré
- 9 C. Wood
- 2 O. Diomande
- 22 V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
- 28 G. Rulli
- 32 A. Bouaddi
- 47 P. Foden
- 27 M. Nunes
- 8 M. Kovačić
- 82 R. Lewis
- 33 N. O'Reilly
- 37 A. Andrade Elias
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