Premier League
Burnley - Aston Villa
05/10/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.7
1.7
1:1
13%1:2
10%0:2
9%2:1
6%1:3
6%What influences the xG?
Burnley
Aston Villa
The Lab
- 1Burnley with Loum Tchaouna: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Aston Villa with Jadon Sancho: 7.5 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Aston Villa: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- 4Burnley: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Burnley: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
21%
Draw
27%
Away Win
52%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
48%
Away or Draw
79%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 52% win probability for Aston Villa
- Burnley is in very poor form with five consecutive losses and a declining goal production of 0.6 goals per game recently compared to 1.2 on average this season
- Aston Villa dominated the direct encounters in recent years, winning all three matches
Risk Factors
- Aston Villa has only 3 days of rest since their last match
Overview
Burnley (19th place, 20 points) host Aston Villa (5th place, 58 points) at Turf Moor in a Premier League match. The game takes place on May 10, 2026, at 3:00 PM. Aston Villa are fighting for a European spot, while Burnley are battling against relegation.
Form
Burnley are in poor form, having lost all of their last five matches (LLLLL). In these five games, they scored a total of 3 goals and conceded 13. Aston Villa show mixed form with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five matches (WLLLW). Their last game was a 4-0 win against Nottingham Forest. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Burnley have scored an average of 1.00 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 2.03 goals per game. At home, the average is 1.00 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded per game. Aston Villa have scored an average of 1.37 goals per game and conceded 1.26 goals per game. Away from home, they have scored an average of 1.33 goals and conceded 1.60 goals. At Turf Moor, there has been an average of 2.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 2 of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the last three head-to-head encounters between Burnley and Aston Villa, Burnley failed to secure a win, while Aston Villa won all three matches. The goal difference stands at 4:8 in favor of Aston Villa. The last meeting on October 5, 2025, ended in a 2-1 victory for Aston Villa. Aston Villa has been dominant in recent encounters.
Key Players
For Burnley, Zian Flemming with 9 season goals and 1 assist, Jaidon Anthony with 7 goals and 2 assists, and Lesley Ugochukwu with 3 goals and 1 assist could be crucial. On Aston Villa's side, Ollie Watkins with 11 goals and 2 assists, Morgan Rogers with 9 goals and 5 assists, and John McGinn with 4 goals and 3 assists stand out.
Goalkeepers
Burnley's goalkeeper Max Weiß has kept 4 clean sheets this season. On the other hand, Emiliano Martínez of Aston Villa has recorded 9 clean sheets this season.
Influences
Turf Moor has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Burnley have scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded 1.73 goals at home. Aston Villa have scored an average of 1.33 goals and conceded 1.60 goals away from home.