Match report →
Arsenal – Hull City1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Arsenal
2.92
Total xG
3.40
Hull City
0.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Arsenal | Hull City |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.83 | |
| Attack strength (1.43x league average) | +0.57 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.32 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 11, 10 places gap) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 1, 10 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Ben White on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Mohamed Belloumi on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Arsenal are 1st with 24 points from 9 matches, Hull City 11th with 11 points from 9 matches
- Form: Arsenal won 4 of their last 5 matches, Hull City remained winless in their last 5 matches
- Home/Away: Arsenal score 2.25 goals per match at home in the league, Hull City score 1 goal per match away
Risks
- Personnel: B. Saka is absent, having scored 3 of the 14 league goals by Arsenal players this season (21%)
- Defence: Arsenal allowed 1.52 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 0.6 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Arsenal86%
Draw11%
Hull City3%
Double chance
Arsenal or draw97%
Hull City or draw14%
No draw89%
Goals
Over 1.586%
Under 1.514%
Over 2.566%
Under 2.534%
Over 3.544%
Under 3.556%
Both teams score
Yes37%
No64%
xG score
3:0
From xG 2.92 : 0.48, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
14%
4:0
10%
2:1
7%
3:1
7%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Arsenal: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Arsenal: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Hull City: 5 of 14 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Arsenal: 37% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 19)
- Hull City: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
Lineups
Arsenal 4-2-3-1 · Hull City 5-3-2
Arsenal
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 12 J. Timber
- 15 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 41 D. Rice
- 20 C. Madueke
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 17 C. Tzolis
- 29 K. Havertz
Hull City
- 19 K. Tzolakis
- 2 L. Coyle
- 6 O. Ibidapo Ajayi
- 15 J. Egan
- 32 N. Mendy
- 21 E. Stroud
- 42 T. Iroegbunam
- 29 L. Gourna Douath
- 27 R. Slater
- 50 M. Cho
- 9 O. McBurnie
Substitutes
- 13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
- 5 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 3 C. Mosquera
- 10 E. Eze
- 14 V. Gyökeres
- 4 B. White
- 23 M. Merino Zazón
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
- 47 R. Vaz
- 11 J. Gelhardt
- 3 R. Giles
- 7 S. Thomas
- 36 C. Mouzakitis
- 1 J. Butland
- 18 B. Norton-Cuffy
- 22 L. Herrington
- 14 J. Hjertø-Dahl
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