Match report →
Leeds United – Tottenham Hotspur1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Leeds United
1.19
Total xG
2.57
Tottenham Hotspur
1.38
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Leeds United | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.53 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.34 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.32 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| Declining form (0.7 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Dominic Solanke on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Tottenham Hotspur won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Leeds United had 0 wins in their last 5 matches
- Attack: Tottenham Hotspur scored 2 goals per match in their last 5 matches, Leeds United 0.4 goals per match
Risks
- Home/Away: Leeds United scored 1.5 goals per match at home in 4 league matches, Tottenham 0.75 goals per match away
All probabilities
Result
Leeds United31%
Draw30%
Tottenham Hotspur40%
Double chance
Leeds United or draw60%
Tottenham Hotspur or draw69%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.19 : 1.38, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:0
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Leeds United: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Tottenham Hotspur: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Aston Villa: 2 goals (86', 90+8')
- Tottenham Hotspur: 77% of all goals in the second half (10 of 13, last 12 games)
Lineups
Leeds United 3-4-2-1 · Tottenham Hotspur 4-3-3
Leeds United
- 1 J. Trafford
- 24 J. Justin
- 30 N. Elvedi
- 5 T. Muharemovic
- 2 J. Bogle
- 4 E. Ampadu
- 22 A. Tanaka
- 3 G. Gudmundsson
- 8 S. Longstaff
- 14 L. Nmecha
- 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
Tottenham Hotspur
- 31 A. Kinský
- 23 P. Porro Sauceda
- 6 J. van Hecke
- 37 M. van de Ven
- 3 A. Robertson
- 16 S. Tonali
- 18 M. Espanha Fernandes
- 14 A. Gray
- 20 M. Kudus
- 22 O. Marmoush
- 11 M. Tel
Substitutes
- 10 H. Wilson
- 16 M. Zetterer
- 26 M. Bard
- 44 I. Gruev
- 11 B. Aaronson
- 6 J. Rodon
- 7 D. James
- 19 N. Okafor
- 15 J. Bijol
- 8 C. Gallagher
- 5 M. Senesi
- 33 B. Davies
- 30 R. Bentancur Colmán
- 21 D. Kulusevski
- 19 D. Solanke
- 10 J. Maddison
- 68 L. Williams-Barnett
- 46 L. Gunter
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