Match report →
Crystal Palace – Liverpool1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Crystal Palace
1.05
Total xG
3.07
Liverpool
2.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Crystal Palace | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.55x league average) | +1.63 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −1.00 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 6, 13 places gap) | −0.35 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.26 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 19, 13 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.01 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Liverpool average 1.75 goals per game away in the league, Crystal Palace concede 2.5 per game at home
- Table: Liverpool sit 6th in the league with 15 points, while Crystal Palace are 19th with 7 points from 9 games
Risks
- Attack: Crystal Palace average 1.5 goals per game at home in the league, compared to Liverpool's 1.22 overall
- Form: Liverpool lost 2 of their last 5 matches in all competitions
All probabilities
Result
Crystal Palace18%
Draw24%
Liverpool59%
Double chance
Crystal Palace or draw41%
Liverpool or draw82%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:2
From xG 1.05 : 2.02, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
0:2
10%
1:3
7%
0:3
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Crystal Palace: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Crystal Palace: 33% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 18)
- Liverpool: 30% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 23)
Lineups
Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1 · Liverpool 4-2-3-1
Crystal Palace
- 1 D. Henderson
- 26 C. Richards
- 5 A. Disasi
- 8 J. Lerma Solís
- 30 Ó. Mingueza García
- 20 A. Wharton
- 23 Q. Timber
- 3 T. Mitchell
- 18 D. Kamada
- 10 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 22 J. Strand Larsen
Liverpool
- 1 A. Becker
- 33 R. Araújo da Silva
- 5 J. Jacquet
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 6 Milos Kerkez
- 8 D. Szoboszlai
- 10 A. Mac Allister
- 18 C. Gakpo
- 7 F. Wirtz
- 29 B. Barcola
- 9 A. Isak
Substitutes
- 33 B. Chilwell
- 11 D. McNeil
- 28 C. Doucoure
- 19 W. Hughes
- 44 W. Benítez
- 6 J. Canvot
- 9 E. Nketiah
- 25 A. Khalaili
- 24 D. Osorio Osorio
- 23 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 67 L. Koumas
- 42 T. Nyoni
- 25 G. Mamardashvili
- 3 W. Endo
- 73 R. Ngumoha
- 2 J. Gomez
- 53 J. McConnell
- 21 K. Tsimikas
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