Match report →
Manchester United – Aston Villa4 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Manchester United
1.75
Total xG
2.90
Aston Villa
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Manchester United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.34x league average) | +0.37 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.26 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 12, 6 places gap) | −0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 18, 6 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Manchester United averages 1.5 goals per game at home in the league, Aston Villa concedes 1.5 per game away
- Head-to-head: Manchester United won 2 of the 4 previous meetings, Aston Villa won 1
- Attack: Manchester United generated an average of 1.59 xG per game across 9 league matches this season
Risks
- Form: Aston Villa achieved 3 wins in their last 5 matches, Manchester United recorded 1 win in their last 5 matches
- Table: Aston Villa ranks 12th in the league after 9 matches with 12 points, Manchester United is 18th with 7 points
All probabilities
Result
Manchester United50%
Draw26%
Aston Villa24%
Double chance
Manchester United or draw76%
Aston Villa or draw50%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.75 : 1.15, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
4:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Manchester United with Kobbie Mainoo starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 0.6 (23/5 games, last 30)
- Manchester United: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Roma: 2 goals (83', 86')
- Manchester United: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)
- Manchester United: 2.8 cards per game (31 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Manchester United 4-2-3-1 · Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
Manchester United
- 1 S. Lammens
- 3 N. Mazraoui
- 15 L. Yoro
- 5 H. Maguire
- 2 J. Dalot Teixeira
- 18 Y. Tielemans
- 37 K. Mainoo
- 16 A. Traoré
- 8 B. Fernandes
- 10 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
- 19 B. Mbeumo
Aston Villa
- 1 Z. Suzuki
- 4 T. Harwood-Bellis
- 3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
- 14 P. Francisco Torres
- 22 I. Maatsen
- 8 B. Kamara
- 27 L. Goretzka
- 47 A. da Rocha dos Santos
- 7 J. McGinn
- 44 J. Manzambi
- 11 N. Jackson
Substitutes
- 12 K. Darlow
- 7 M. Mount
- 11 J. Zirkzee
- 4 M. de Ligt
- 26 A. Heaven
- 13 P. Chinazaekpere Dorgu
- 17 A. Nascimento dos Santos
- 38 J. Fletcher
- 31 S. Lacey
- 39 B. Djomeni Madjo
- 19 I. Mbaye
- 35 Gomes
- 5 T. Mings
- 40 M. Bizot
- 26 L. Bogarde
- 10 E. Buendía
- 6 R. Barkley
- 53 G. Hemmings
- 48 M. Cissé
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