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Ipswich Town – AFC Bournemouth1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Ipswich Town
1.23
Total xG
3.07
AFC Bournemouth
1.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ipswich Town | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | +0.63 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.36 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.35 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: AFC Bournemouth have 5 wins from their last 5 matches, Ipswich Town have 1 win from their last 5 matches
- Shots: AFC Bournemouth averaged 6.2 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Ipswich Town 3.6 per match
- Defense: Ipswich Town conceded 2 goals per match in the league this season, AFC Bournemouth 1.44 per match
Risks
- Match interval: AFC Bournemouth with 3 days since their last match
- Away: AFC Bournemouth conceded 2.25 goals per match in 4 away matches in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Ipswich Town24%
Draw26%
AFC Bournemouth50%
Double chance
Ipswich Town or draw50%
AFC Bournemouth or draw76%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.22 : 1.84, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
6%
1:3
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Ipswich Town: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Fulham: 2 goals (88', 90+1')
- Ipswich Town: 6 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- AFC Bournemouth: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (8 of 24)
Lineups
Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1 · AFC Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
Ipswich Town
- 28 C. Walton
- 42 G. Ouattara
- 6 I. Diop
- 26 D. O'Shea
- 3 L. Davis
- 25 E. Palacios
- 12 F. Morris Luís
- 38 D. Maeda
- 10 J. Enciso
- 11 J. Philogene-Bidace
- 19 E. Correia da Silva
AFC Bournemouth
- 1 Đ. Petrović
- 15 A. Smith
- 5 J. Hill
- 14 A. Tavares Silva
- 3 A. Truffert
- 12 T. Adams
- 10 R. Christie
- 37 R. Rocha
- 19 J. Kluivert
- 16 M. Tavernier
- 9 F. de Lima Barbosa
Substitutes
- 23 S. Lukić
- 9 Z. Flemming
- 7 A. Issahaku
- 2 D. Furlong
- 29 C. Akpom
- 5 A. Matusiwa
- 47 J. Clarke
- 24 J. Greaves
- 37 K. Scherpen
- 30 ?. Rodríguez Muñoz
- 22 E. Kroupi
- 18 B. Diakité
- 21 A. Adli
- 11 B. Doak
- 6 J. Soler Barreto
- 4 L. Cook
- 8 A. Scott
- 20 M. Di Gregorio
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