Match report →
Everton – Coventry City3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Everton
1.71
Total xG
2.67
Coventry City
0.96
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Everton | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.54 | |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −0.49 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 7, 9 places gap) | −0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 16, 9 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Ainsley Maitland-Niles on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Brandon Thomas-Asante on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Everton sits 7th in the league this season with 13 points from 9 games, Coventry City is 16th with 9 points
- Away form: Coventry City averages 0.5 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded per away game in the league this season
- Possession: Everton averaged 50.8% possession in their last 5 games, compared to 37% for Coventry City
Risks
- xG: Coventry City generated 0.94 xG per game across 5 games with xG data, but scored 1.8 goals per game
- Form: Coventry City recorded 3 wins in their last 5 games, while Everton had 2 wins
All probabilities
Result
Everton54%
Draw27%
Coventry City20%
Double chance
Everton or draw80%
Coventry City or draw46%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.71 : 0.96, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Coventry City: 33% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 21)
Lineups
Everton 4-2-3-1 · Coventry City 4-2-3-1
Everton
- 1 J. Pickford
- 34 M. Röhl
- 6 J. Tarkowski
- 4 J. Branthwaite
- 16 V. Mykolenko
- 45 H. Armstrong
- 37 J. Garner
- 20 T. Dibling
- 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 19 T. George
- 11 T. Barry
Coventry City
- 19 C. Rushworth
- 27 M. van Ewijk
- 12 S. Mfuni
- 2 E. Pinnock
- 3 J. Dasilva
- 8 C. Yirenkyi
- 29 V. Torp Overgaard
- 7 T. Sakamoto
- 5 J. Rudoni
- 34 Y. Gboho
- 14 T. Awoniyi
Substitutes
- 2 A. Maitland-Niles
- 12 M. Travers
- 5 M. Keane
- 15 J. O´Brien
- 24 C. Alcaraz
- 22 B. Johnson
- 30 H. Hackney
- 23 C. Nørgaard
- 58 B. Graham
- 49 S. Cherif
- 25 D. Bentley
- 17 L. Tchaouna
- 22 J. Latibeaudiere
- 9 E. Simms
- 20 K. Kessler
- 23 B. Thomas-Asante
- 6 M. Grimes
- 38 G. Hamer
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