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Premier League

West Ham United - Arsenal

05/10/2026, 03:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
West Ham United
1.5
Total xG
3.8
Arsenal
2.4
Most Likely Scores

1:2

9%

1:3

7%

2:2

7%

2:1

6%

2:3

5%
What influences the xG?
WHUARS

West Ham United

Attack strength (1.44x league average)
+0.35
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 1, 17 places gap)
-0.26
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.26
Rising form (2 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.08
Full strength squad available

Arsenal

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (1.4 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.22
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 18, 17 places gap)
+0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Martin Ødegaard on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists)
Martín Zubimendi on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Piero Hincapié on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Noni Madueke on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Arsenal: 91% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    West Ham United with Soungoutou Magassa: 6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Arsenal: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    Arsenal with Cristhian Mosquera: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Arsenal: 56% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 9)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

23%

Draw

21%

Away Win

56%

Goals

Over 1.5

91%

Under 1.5

9%

Over 2.5

74%

Under 2.5

26%

Over 3.5

53%

Under 3.5

47%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

44%

Away or Draw

77%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

71%

No

29%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Arsenal with 56% probability and 2.36 expected goals
  • Arsenal leads the league while West Ham is in a relegation battle, and Arsenal is in better current form
  • West Ham United shows a positive offensive development with 2.0 goals per game recently compared to the season average of 1.3 goals
Risk Factors
  • Arsenal's goal production has recently decreased to 1.4 goals per game compared to the season average of 2.1 goals
  • West Ham United conceded an average of 1.74 goals per game this season
Overview

West Ham United (18th place, 36 points) host Arsenal (1st place, 76 points) at the London Stadium

Premier League match on May 10, 2026, 5:30 PM

Arsenal are fighting for the top spot, while West Ham are battling against relegation

Form

West Ham's form across all competitions is DWDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

West Ham recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from their last 5 games

The last match ended in a loss

Arsenal shows a form of LWDWW

From their last 5 games, Arsenal secured 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

The last result was a win

Statistics

West Ham United averages 1.2 goals per game and concedes 1.74 goals per match

Arsenal is offensively strong with an average of 1.91 goals per game and a robust defense conceding only 0.74 goals per match

At home, West Ham United averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded

Arsenal averages 1.93 goals scored away and 1.07 goals conceded away

At the London Stadium, an average of 3.4 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, West Ham United achieved 2 wins and Arsenal secured 3 wins

There were no draws between these teams

Arsenal scored 13 goals, while West Ham United scored 5 goals

The last encounter on October 4, 2025, ended in a 2-0 victory for Arsenal

Arsenal dominated the recent matchups

Key Players

For West Ham United, Jarrod Bowen is an important offensive player with 8 season goals and 10 assists

Mateus Fernandes contributed 3 goals and 3 assists this season and recently shows stable form

Tomáš Souček has scored 5 season goals and his form is rising

For Arsenal, Viktor Gyökeres is the top scorer with 14 goals and 1 assist in 33 season appearances

Bukayo Saka is significant with 7 goals and 5 assists this season, showing rising form

Leandro Trossard has 5 goals and 6 assists in the current season and shows rising form

Not in the starting lineup are Martin Ødegaard (1 Goal/5 Assists), Martín Zubimendi (5 Goals/1 Assist), Piero Hincapié (1 Goal/2 Assists), and Noni Madueke (2 Goals/1 Assist)

Goalkeepers

Mads Hermansen (West Ham United) recorded 6 clean sheets this season

David Raya (Arsenal) kept his goal clean an impressive 17 times this season

Influences

The London Stadium saw an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Statistics show that both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches

Furthermore, over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches

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