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Premier League

Nottingham Forest - Newcastle United

05/10/2026, 01:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Nottingham Forest
1.8
Total xG
2.8
Newcastle United
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
NFNU

Nottingham Forest

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.34
Rising form (2.6 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.34
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.17
Morgan Gibbs-White not in squad (13 goals, 4 assists)
Omari Hutchinson  on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Chris Wood  on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

Newcastle United

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.42
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.20
Lewis Miley not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Jacob Ramsey on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Newcastle United with Joelinton: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Newcastle United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Nottingham Forest: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Nottingham Forest with Jair Cunha : 4.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Newcastle United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

26%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Nottingham Forest shows positive form and scores more frequently (2.6) than their season average (1.5)
  • Newcastle United's goal production is faltering (1.2) and they concede an average of 2.0 goals away from home
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Nottingham Forest with a probability of 54%
Risk Factors
  • Nottingham Forest had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Newcastle United concede an average of 2.0 goals per away game
  • Newcastle United historically dominated 4 out of 5 head-to-head matches
Overview

Nottingham Forest (16th place, 42 points) host Newcastle United (13th place, 45 points) at The City Ground. Premier League match on May 10, 2026, 2:00 PM. Nottingham aims to close the gap to mid-table, while Newcastle looks to further distance themselves from the relegation zone.

Form

Nottingham Forest shows strong form with "WWWWL" (4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss) in their last five matches. Their last game was a loss, preceded by four consecutive wins. Newcastle United, however, displays weaker form with "LLLLW" (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses). After four straight losses, they managed a win in their last outing. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Nottingham Forest scored an average of 1.26 goals per game this season and conceded 1.31 goals. At home, they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded. Newcastle United scored an average of 1.40 goals per game and conceded 1.46 goals. Away from home, their average is 1.45 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded. Nottingham Forest kept 9 clean sheets this season, while Newcastle United recorded 8. Both teams scored in 15 of Nottingham's matches and 23 of Newcastle's matches. At The City Ground, an average of 1.8 goals were scored per game, both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 matches.

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head encounters, Newcastle United dominated with 4 wins compared to 1 win for Nottingham Forest. The goal difference is 9:13 in favor of Newcastle United. The last match on October 5, 2025, ended with a 0:2 away victory for Newcastle United.

Key Players

For Nottingham Forest, Igor Jesus, with 6 season goals and 4 assists, and 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, and Taiwo Awoniyi, with 4 season goals and 1 assist, and 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, are key players. Elliot Anderson contributed 3 season goals and 2 assists, including 1 goal in the last 5 games. Not nominated for Nottingham Forest: Morgan Gibbs-White (13G/4A), Omari Hutchinson (1G/4A), Chris Wood (3G/0A). For Newcastle United, Bruno GuimarĂŁes with 9 season goals and 5 assists, Nick Woltemade with 7 season goals and 3 assists, and William Osula with 5 season goals, including 3 in the last 5 games, stand out. Not nominated for Newcastle United: Lewis Miley (1G/4A), Jacob Ramsey (2G/1A).

Goalkeepers

Nottingham Forest's goalkeeper is Matz Sels, who has played in 28 season matches with a seasonal average rating of 6.79. Newcastle United's goalkeeper Nick Pope played 24 season matches with an average rating of 6.81. Nottingham Forest kept 9 clean sheets this season, while Newcastle United recorded 8 clean sheets.

Influences

The home advantage for Nottingham Forest is evident with an average of 1.29 home goals scored. The City Ground stadium records an average of 1.8 goals per game. The last 5 matches at The City Ground saw both teams score in 2 out of 5 cases, and over 2.5 goals in 1 out of 5 cases.

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