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Premier League

Everton - Sunderland

05/17/2026, 02:00 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Everton
1.5
Total xG
2.7
Sunderland
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
EVESUN

Everton

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.14
Idrissa Gueye not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)

Sunderland

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.03
Habib Diarra on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 89% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sunderland with Reinildo Mandava: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Everton: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Everton: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 4
    Everton: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Sunderland: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

29%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis shows a 45% probability of an Everton home win
  • Everton shows a positive recent form trend with an average of 1.8 goals per game recently compared to 1.3 goals on season average
  • Sunderland's away defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.93 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Sunderland is without Habib Diarra (2 goals, 1 assist), meaning 10.2% of their usual starting XI goal threat is missing
  • Everton has not won any of their last five matches, with three draws and two losses
Overview

Everton (10th place, 49 points) hosts Sunderland (12th place, 48 points) at the Hill Dickinson Stadium. Premier League match on May 17, 2026, 4:00 PM. Both teams are in the mid-table, separated by only one point. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 45% probability.

Form

Everton's form in the last five games is DLLDD (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). Their last two matches ended in a draw. Sunderland's form in the last five games is WLLDD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses). They also finished their last two encounters with a draw. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Everton scores an average of 1.25 goals at home and concedes 1.20 goals per game. Sunderland scores an average of 1.00 goals away and concedes 1.93 goals per away game. At the Hill Dickinson Stadium, an average of 3.0 goals per game are scored. Both teams scored in 40% of the matches, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

In the two previous head-to-head matches, neither Everton nor Sunderland secured a win, with both games ending in a draw. The goal difference is 2:2. The last encounter on January 10, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw.

Key Players

For Everton, Beto stands out with 5 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has recorded 8 goals and 4 assists this season. James Garner has contributed 7 season assists. For Sunderland, Enzo Le FĂ©e is a key player with 4 goals and 5 assists this season. Nordi Mukiele scored 2 goals in the last 5 games. Granit Xhaka has provided 6 season assists.

Goalkeepers

Jordan Pickford for Everton and Robin Roefs for Sunderland are the expected goalkeepers. Both teams have achieved 11 clean sheets this season.

Influences

The Hill Dickinson Stadium sees an average of 3.0 total goals per game. Both teams scored in 40% of matches there, and 60% ended with over 2.5 goals.

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