Premier League
Newcastle United - West Ham United
05/17/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
3.5
1.7
1:1
11%2:1
8%1:2
8%2:2
7%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Newcastle United
West Ham United
The Lab
- 1West Ham United with Soungoutou Magassa: 6.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 2Newcastle United with Joelinton: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3West Ham United: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Newcastle United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 5Newcastle United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
38%
Draw
25%
Away Win
37%
Goals
Over 1.5
87%
Under 1.5
13%
Over 2.5
67%
Under 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
46%
Under 3.5
54%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
63%
Away or Draw
62%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
69%
No
31%
Key Factors
- High goal potential: St. James' Park venue statistics and pipeline predictions (69% BTTS, 67% Over 2.5) suggest a high-scoring game
- Guests' defensive weakness: West Ham concedes an average of 2.13 goals per away game
- Newcastle's declining scoring form: The home team's goal production has dropped from a season average of 1.8 to 1.2 recently
Risk Factors
- Tight outcome according to prediction: The mathematical analysis shows a very narrow distribution of win probabilities (Home 38%, Away 37%)
- Missing key players for Newcastle: 4 key players are not in the lineup, which could affect the team structure
Overview
Newcastle United (13th place, 46 points) host West Ham United (18th place, 36 points) at St. James' Park
Premier League match on May 17, 2026, 5:30 PM
Newcastle is in the mid-table, while West Ham is fighting against relegation
Form
Newcastle United's form over the last five games shows a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses (LLLWD)
Their last match ended in a draw
West Ham United has a record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches (WDWLL)
The Hammers have recently suffered two consecutive losses
Statistics
Newcastle United averages 1.39 goals per game and concedes 1.44 goals
At home, they score 1.38 goals and concede 1.21 goals per game
They have achieved 8 clean sheets in total, with 3 at home
West Ham United scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 1.72 goals per game
Away, their average is 1.2 goals scored and 2.13 goals conceded
They have 6 clean sheets this season, 4 of which were away
At St. James' Park, the last 5 matches averaged 3.2 goals per game
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
With both teams scoring in 5 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals scored in 4 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle United secured 2 wins, there was 1 draw, and West Ham United claimed 2 wins
The goal difference is 8:10 in favor of West Ham
The last encounter was won by West Ham United on November 2, 2025, with a score of 3:1
The overall record is even
Key Players
For Newcastle United, key players include Bruno GuimarĂąes (9 goals, 5 assists, avg rating 7.33), Harvey Barnes (7 goals, avg rating 6.72), and William Osula (5 goals, avg rating 6.68)
For West Ham United, Jarrod Bowen (8 goals, 10 assists, avg rating 7.00), Mateus Fernandes (3 goals, 3 assists, avg rating 7.03), and Konstantinos Mavropanos (3 goals, avg rating 6.99) are significant
Goalkeepers
Nick Pope of Newcastle United has recorded a total of 8 clean sheets this season, with 3 of them in home games
Mads Hermansen of West Ham United achieved 6 clean sheets, 4 of which were in away matches
Influences
Newcastle United's home strength is reflected in 1.38 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per home game
West Ham United concedes an average of 2.13 goals per away game
St. James' Park tends to favor high-scoring matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game in the last 5 fixtures and 100% BTTS (both teams scored)