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Premier League

Chelsea - Tottenham Hotspur

05/19/2026, 07:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Chelsea
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Tottenham Hotspur
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
CHETH

Chelsea

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.39
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.39
Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 17, 7 places gap)
+0.05
João Pedro not in squad (15 goals, 5 assists)
Malo Gusto not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Trevoh Chalobah on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

Tottenham Hotspur

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 10, 7 places gap)
-0.08
Dominic Solanke not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Chelsea with Enzo Fernández: 0.5 goals/90 min. Without: 6.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Tottenham Hotspur: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Tottenham Hotspur with Richarlison: 1 goals/90 min. Without: 2.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Tottenham Hotspur: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Tottenham Hotspur: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

29%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Historical Dominance: Chelsea won all last 5 head-to-head matches against Tottenham Hotspur
  • Current Form: Tottenham Hotspur has been more stable in the last 5 games with 2 wins and 2 draws, while Chelsea only secured one win
  • Offensive Weakness: Chelsea's goal production has significantly decreased recently (0.6 goals/game compared to 1.9 season average)
Risk Factors
  • Short Recovery Time: Chelsea had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Lack of Goal Threat: Chelsea averaged only 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Chelsea (10th place, 49 points) host Tottenham Hotspur (17th place, 38 points) at Stamford Bridge. The Premier League match takes place on May 19, 2026, 8:15 PM. Chelsea are in mid-table, while Tottenham are fighting in the lower ranks to remain in the league. The hosts want to close the gap to the European places, while the visitors urgently need points against relegation.

Form

Chelsea's recent form is weak with 'LWLDL' (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) from the last five matches, including 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Their last result was a loss. Tottenham Hotspur, on the other hand, performed slightly better with 'LDWWD', securing 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games. Their last result was a draw.

Statistics

Chelsea averages 1.53 goals scored per game and concedes 1.36 goals this season. At home, the average is 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded. They kept 9 clean sheets and both teams scored in 22 matches. Tottenham Hotspur averages 1.28 goals scored per game and concedes 1.53 goals. Away, they score 1.25 goals and concede 1.2 goals. They achieved 8 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 22 matches. At Stamford Bridge, an average of 3.6 goals per game are scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches. Both teams scored in 1 out of 5 matches.

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelsea dominated with 5 wins, while Tottenham Hotspur recorded no wins and no draws. Chelsea scored a total of 12 goals and conceded 4 goals in these encounters. The last match on November 1, 2025, ended with a 1-0 victory for Chelsea.

Key Players

For Chelsea, Enzo Fernández with 9 goals and 3 assists in 34 season appearances (avg rating 7.23) and Cole Palmer with 9 goals and 1 assist in 24 games (avg rating 6.99) are key offensive players. Pedro Neto contributed 5 goals and 4 assists in 32 appearances (avg rating 6.94). For Tottenham Hotspur, Richarlison is a key attacking player with 10 goals and 5 assists in 30 season appearances (avg rating 6.93). João Palhinha was active with 4 goals and 2 assists in 31 appearances (avg rating 6.88). Mathys Tel scored 4 goals and 1 assist in 29 games (avg rating 6.74).

Goalkeepers

For Chelsea, Robert Sánchez is in goal and contributed to the team's 9 clean sheets this season. For Tottenham Hotspur, Antonín Kinský played in 5 games, while the team achieved a total of 8 clean sheets.

Influences

Stamford Bridge is known for its high-scoring games, with an average of 3.6 goals per match in the last five games. In 80% of these matches, more than 2.5 goals were scored. The playing surface is grass. Chelsea scores an average of 1.5 goals at home and concedes the same number of goals. Tottenham Hotspur scores an average of 1.25 goals away and concedes 1.2 goals.

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