Premier League
Aston Villa - Liverpool
05/15/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.0
1.1
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
9%3:1
6%3:0
6%What influences the xG?
Aston Villa
Liverpool
The Lab
- 1Aston Villa with Jadon Sancho: 7.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Liverpool with Andrew Robertson: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Aston Villa: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4Liverpool: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
56%
Draw
25%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
44%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis sees Aston Villa as 56% favorites for a home win
- Liverpool's squad is weakened with only 88% of usual goal production due to absences
- Liverpool dominates the head-to-head matches with 3 wins and no losses in the last 5 encounters
Risk Factors
- Liverpool concedes an average of 1.81 goals per game away from home
- Both teams show a stagnant goal production according to Advanced Stats
- Limited data available for duels won in the last 5 games
Overview
Aston Villa (5th place, 59 points) host Liverpool (4th place, 59 points) at Villa Park. The Premier League match is on May 15, 2026, 8:00 PM. Both teams are level on points and are battling for European qualification spots.
Form
Aston Villa's form in their last 5 matches is LLLWD, with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Their last game was a 2-2 away draw against Burnley. Liverpool's form is LWWLD, consisting of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their most recent match was a 1-1 home draw against Chelsea. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Aston Villa averages 1.39 goals scored per game this season and concedes 1.28 goals. At home, they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded. Liverpool scores 1.67 goals per game and concedes 1.33 goals. Away from home, Liverpool concedes an average of 1.81 goals. At Villa Park, the last 5 matches saw an average of 4.0 total goals per game, with over 2.5 goals in 80% of games and both teams scoring in 40%.
Head-to-Head
In the past 5 head-to-head encounters, Liverpool dominated with 3 wins compared to Aston Villa's 0, with 2 draws. The goal difference of 5:12 clearly favors Liverpool. The last meeting on November 01, 2025, ended with a 0-2 away win for Liverpool.
Key Players
For Aston Villa, key players include Ollie Watkins with 12 season goals and 2 assists (2 goals, 1 assist in the last 5 games), John McGinn with 4 season goals and 4 assists (2 goals, 2 assists in the last 5 appearances), and Emiliano BuendĂa who contributed 6 season goals and 2 assists (2 goals, 1 assist in the last 5 games). For Liverpool, Dominik Szoboszlai with 6 season goals and 5 assists (1 goal, 2 assists in the last 5 games), Cody Gakpo with 7 season goals and 5 assists (1 goal, 1 assist in the last 5 games), and Ryan Gravenberch with 5 season goals and 3 assists (1 goal in the last 5 games) are crucial. Not nominated: Florian Wirtz (5 goals/3 assists), Alexander Isak (3 goals/1 assist), Jeremie Frimpong (0 goals/2 assists) affect the attacking strength.
Goalkeepers
Aston Villa's goalkeeper Emiliano MartĂnez recorded 9 clean sheets this season. Liverpool's goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili appeared in 9 games this season and achieved 5 clean sheets, while the team as a whole recorded 10 clean sheets.
Influences
Aston Villa has scored an average of 1.4 goals and conceded 1.0 goals at home. At Villa Park, the last 5 games averaged 4.0 total goals per game, with over 2.5 goals in 80% of matches and both teams scoring in 40%. The match will be played on grass.