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Premier League

Arsenal - Burnley

05/18/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Arsenal
2.4
Total xG
3.0
Burnley
0.6
Most Likely Scores

2:0

14%

3:0

12%

2:1

8%

1:1

8%

4:0

7%
What influences the xG?
ARSBUR

Arsenal

Attack strength (1.25x league average)
+1.02
Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.82
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (1.4 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.22
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 19, 18 places gap)
+0.17
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Viktor Gyökeres on the bench (14 goals, 1 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Burnley

Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.88
Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.74
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.12
Standings disadvantage (pos 19 vs 1, 18 places gap)
-0.10
Quilindschy Hartman on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Burnley with Loum Tchaouna: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Arsenal: 85% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Arsenal: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    Arsenal with Cristhian Mosquera: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Arsenal: 56% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 9)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

77%

Draw

17%

Away Win

6%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

94%

Away or Draw

23%

No Draw

83%

Both Score

Yes

41%

No

59%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win with 77% probability
  • Form discrepancy: Arsenal is in top form (4 wins, 1 draw), while Burnley is struggling significantly (4 losses, 1 draw)
  • Home strength vs. Away weakness: Arsenal scores an average of 1.90 goals at home and concedes 0.52, while Burnley concedes 2.37 goals away
Risk Factors
  • Burnley concedes an average of 2.37 goals per away game
  • Arsenal's goal production has recently stalled (1.4), while the season average is 2.1
  • Burnley's goal production has recently stalled (0.8), while the season average is 1.2
Overview

Arsenal (1st place, 79 points) host Burnley (19th place, 21 points) at the Emirates Stadium. The Premier League match is on May 18, 2026, 8:00 PM. Arsenal is playing for the title, while Burnley is fighting for survival

Form

Arsenal is in excellent form with W D W W W in their last five matches (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This accounts for 4 wins and 1 draw

Arsenal's last match was a 1-0 away win against West Ham United

Burnley shows a poor run of form with L L L L D in their last five matches

This means 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

Burnley's last game ended in a 2-2 draw against Aston Villa

Statistics

Arsenal scores an average of 1.90 goals in home games and concedes only 0.52 goals per match

Burnley, on the other hand, concedes an alarming average of 2.37 goals away from home while scoring 1.05 goals per away match

The Emirates Stadium averages 1.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in only 1 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Arsenal dominated with 3 wins

Burnley has not been able to win any of these encounters so far

Arsenal scored a total of 10 goals, while Burnley managed only 1 goal

The last meeting on November 1, 2025, ended in a 2-0 victory for Arsenal

Key Players

For Arsenal, Bukayo Saka (7 goals, 5 assists, avg. 7.21 rating) and Leandro Trossard (6 goals, 6 assists, avg. 6.97 rating, rising form) are crucial

Declan Rice (4 goals, 5 assists, avg. 7.32 rating) is also very important in midfield

For Burnley, Zian Flemming (10 goals, 1 assist, avg. 6.84 rating) is the top scorer

Jaidon Anthony (8 goals, 2 assists, avg. 6.84 rating) and Loum Tchaouna (2 goals, avg. 6.60 rating, rising form) are other important players

Goalkeepers

Arsenal goalkeeper David Raya has kept 18 clean sheets in 36 games this season

Max Weiß of Burnley has achieved 0 clean sheets in 1 game

Burnley has not kept any clean sheets in away games this season

Influences

Arsenal's home strength is evident with an average of 1.90 goals scored and only 0.52 goals conceded per home game

The Emirates Stadium averages 1.6 total goals per match

Both teams scored in only 20% of matches at the Emirates Stadium

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 40% of matches at the Emirates Stadium

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