Premier League
Manchester United - Nottingham Forest
05/17/2026, 11:30 AM
Expected Goals
2.2
3.1
0.9
2:0
11%1:1
10%2:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Manchester United
Nottingham Forest
The Lab
- 1Manchester United: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 2Nottingham Forest with Morgan Gibbs-White: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Manchester United: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- 4Manchester United: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 5Manchester United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
65%
Draw
22%
Away Win
14%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
86%
Away or Draw
35%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: Manchester United are clear favorites with a 65% home win probability
- Old Trafford: The stadium is characterized by high goal rates, with an average of 3.6 goals per game in the last five matches
- Home strength: Manchester United's offensive home strength is evident with an average of 1.71 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Head-to-head: Nottingham Forest dominated recent direct encounters, winning three of the last five matches
Overview
Manchester United (3rd place, 65 points) host Nottingham Forest (16th place, 43 points) at Old Trafford
Premier League match on May 17, 2026, 12:30 PM
The mathematical analysis indicates Manchester United as home favorites with a 65% win probability
Form
Manchester United's form in the last five league games is LWWWD (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
Nottingham Forest's form in the last five league games is WWWLD (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Manchester United scores an average of 1.75 goals per game and concedes 1.33 goals
At home, Manchester United scores an average of 1.71 goals and concedes 1.05 goals
Nottingham Forest scores an average of 1.25 goals per game and concedes 1.31 goals
Away from home, Nottingham Forest scores an average of 1.24 goals and concedes 1.19 goals
At Old Trafford, the last five matches saw an average of 3.6 total goals per game
All five of these matches at Old Trafford featured both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last five direct encounters, there was one draw and three away wins
Manchester United won one direct match, Nottingham Forest won three matches
The goal difference is 6:8 in favor of Nottingham Forest
The last encounter on November 1, 2025, ended in a 2:2 draw
Nottingham Forest has dominated recent head-to-head matches
Key Players
For Manchester United, Bruno Fernandes is a key player with 8 goals and 19 assists, holding an average rating of 7.74
Matheus Cunha contributed 9 goals and 2 assists, showing stable form with 2 goals in the last 5 games
Casemiro is in rising form with 2 goals in the last 5 games and a total of 9 goals and 2 assists
For Nottingham Forest, Morgan Gibbs-White is in rising form with 13 goals and 4 assists and a rating of 7.03
Igor Jesus has scored 6 goals and provided 4 assists this season, contributing 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games
Elliot Anderson delivered 4 goals and 2 assists, with 2 goals in his last 5 appearances
Goalkeepers
Manchester United's goalkeeper Senne Lammens has secured 7 clean sheets in 30 appearances this season and is in rising form
Nottingham Forest's goalkeeper Matz Sels recorded 9 clean sheets in 29 appearances and also shows rising form
Influences
The match takes place at Old Trafford on grass
Manchester United's home ground has a high scoring rate with an average of 3.6 goals per game in the last five matches
In all five of these games at Old Trafford, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals