Premier League
Brentford - Crystal Palace
05/17/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
3.1
1.3
1:1
12%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Brentford
Crystal Palace
The Lab
- 1Crystal Palace: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2Crystal Palace with Yéremy Pino: 0.7 goals/90 min. Without: 6.9 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Brentford with Kristoffer Ajer: 2.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
- 4Brentford: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
26%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 47% probability and 1.79 expected home goals
- Brentford's home strength is evident in an average of 1.48 goals scored and only 0.90 goals conceded per home game
- Crystal Palace showed a counter-attacking style in the last 5 games with an average of 4.6 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Limited data availability for duel statistics in the last 5 matches
Overview
Brentford (8th place, 51 points) host Crystal Palace (15th place, 44 points) at the Gtech Community Stadium
Premier League match on May 17, 2026, 4:00 PM
Brentford is fighting for a better position in the upper half of the table
Crystal Palace aims to move away from the relegation zone
Form
The home team Brentford has shown the form DDLWL in their last five matches
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
This corresponds to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Crystal Palace has a form of WLWDL in their last five matches
This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Most recently, Brentford suffered a loss, as did Crystal Palace
Statistics
Brentford scored an average of 1.44 goals per game and conceded an average of 1.36 goals this season
At home, Brentford is stronger offensively with an average of 1.48 home goals and more solid defensively with an average of 0.90 home goals conceded
Crystal Palace scores an average of 1.06 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.31 goals
Away from home, Crystal Palace scores an average of 1.05 goals and concedes an average of 1.37 goals
At the Gtech Community Stadium, an average of 2.6 total goals were scored per game in the last 5 matches
2 out of 5 matches ended with both teams scoring and 3 out of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
There have been a total of 5 head-to-head matches between Brentford and Crystal Palace
Both teams have secured 2 wins each, with 1 match ending in a draw
The goal difference is 8:6 in favor of Crystal Palace
The last encounter on November 1, 2025, was won by Crystal Palace with a score of 2:0
Recent encounters show an even balance of power between the two teams
Key Players
For Brentford, Igor Thiago (22 goals, 1 assist), Dango Ouattara (5 goals, 3 assists), and Mikkel Damsgaard (4 goals, 4 assists) are the key players
Igor Thiago scored 3 goals in his last 5 games and has an average rating of 7.09
Dango Ouattara had no goal involvement in his last 5 games, with a rating of 6.77
Mikkel Damsgaard scored once in his last 5 games, with an average rating of 7.07
Not nominated for Brentford: Kevin Schade (7 goals / 3 assists)
For Crystal Palace, Ismaïla Sarr (8 goals, 1 assist), Daniel Muñoz (4 goals, 2 assists), and Jørgen Strand Larsen (3 goals) are important players
Ismaïla Sarr scored 1 goal in his last 3 games and has a rating of 6.60
Daniel Muñoz and Jørgen Strand Larsen had no goal involvement in their last 3 games
Not nominated for Crystal Palace: Jean-Philippe Mateta (11 goals / 0 assists)
Goalkeepers
For Brentford, Caoimhín Kelleher is in goal and has achieved 10 clean sheets in 35 season appearances
Dean Henderson is the goalkeeper for Crystal Palace and has achieved 12 clean sheets in 35 season appearances
Influences
Brentford has a solid defense at home with an average of 0.90 goals conceded per home game
At the Gtech Community Stadium, an average of 2.6 goals were scored per game in the last 5 matches
The home team scored an average of 1.48 goals per game at home
The grass pitch at the Gtech Community Stadium is a standard factor
Crystal Palace concedes an average of 1.37 goals per away game