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Premier League

Leeds United - Brighton & Hove Albion

05/17/2026, 02:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Leeds United
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

0:2

5%
What influences the xG?
LUB&HA

Leeds United

Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 7, 7 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.08
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.04
Noah Okafor not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists)
Jayden Bogle not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)

Brighton & Hove Albion

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.21
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.21
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 14, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Mats Wieffer not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Kaoru Mitoma not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Leeds United: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Brighton & Hove Albion: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 3
    Brighton & Hove Albion with Maxim De Cuyper: 6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Leeds United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Brighton & Hove Albion: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

30%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Leeds United is favored by the mathematical model with a home win probability of 42% and 1.41 expected goals
  • Brighton & Hove Albion is in a significantly better league position, 7th place with 53 points, compared to Leeds United
  • Brighton shows a strongly improved offensive performance with an average of 2.2 goals per game in recent form, compared to 1.5 goals in the season average
Risk Factors
  • Brighton & Hove Albion won the only head-to-head match away with a clear 3-0 score
  • The venue's historical BTTS rate is a low 20%, which contrasts with the pipeline's 52% prediction for 'Both Teams To Score'
  • Leeds United has a relatively high season average of 1.47 goals conceded per game
Overview

Leeds United (14th place, 44 points) host Brighton & Hove Albion (7th place, 53 points) at Elland Road. The Premier League match takes place on May 17, 2026, 3:00 PM. Leeds aims to stabilize in the mid-table, while Brighton seeks to consolidate its strong season position

Form

Leeds United's form in their last five matches is WDLWD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). Leeds last drew 1-1 against Tottenham Hotspur. Brighton & Hove Albion shows a current form of WDWLW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). They won their last game 3-0 against Wolverhampton Wanderers. Brighton's form is currently stronger than Leeds'

Statistics

Leeds United averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded per game this season. At home, the average is 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded. Brighton & Hove Albion scores an average of 1.44 goals per game and concedes 1.17 goals. Away, Brighton scores 1.47 goals and concedes 1.67 goals per match. Leeds United is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.5). Brighton & Hove Albion is currently scoring more frequently (2.2) than their season average (1.5). Elland Road sees an average of 2.2 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 1 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

Historically, there has been one head-to-head encounter between these two teams. Brighton & Hove Albion won this single match away with a score of 3-0 on November 1, 2025. The goal difference stands at 0-3 in favor of Brighton. Due to the limited number of matches, historical patterns are difficult to establish

Key Players

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is Leeds United's top scorer with 13 goals and 1 assist, having scored 3 goals in his last 5 appearances. Brenden Aaronson contributed 4 goals and 5 assists, with 1 assist in the last 5 games. Anton Stach (5 goals, 3 assists) scored once in his last 4 games. For Brighton & Hove Albion, Danny Welbeck is an important offensive player with 13 goals and 1 assist, involved in 2 goals in his last 5 matches. Jack Hinshelwood (4 goals, 3 assists) showed strong form with 3 goals in his last 5 appearances. Maxim De Cuyper (2 goals, 3 assists) provided 3 assists in his last 4 games

Goalkeepers

Leeds United's goalkeeper, Karl Darlow, has no goal contributions in 20 season appearances. The Leeds team has kept 7 clean sheets this season. For Brighton & Hove Albion, Bart Verbruggen has been in goal for 36 season games, also without goal contributions. Brighton has kept 10 clean sheets this season

Influences

Elland Road has seen an average of 2.2 total goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 1 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games. Leeds United showed defensive stability at home with an average of 1.0 goals conceded. Home advantage could be bolstered by a solid defense. No weather data is available for this match

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