Premier League
AFC Bournemouth - Manchester City
05/19/2026, 06:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
3.0
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
AFC Bournemouth
Manchester City
The Lab
- 1Manchester City: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- 2Manchester City: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- 3AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- 4AFC Bournemouth: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5AFC Bournemouth with Tyler Adams: 3.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
31%
Draw
27%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
69%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- Pipeline forecast: Manchester City has a higher win probability at 42%
- Head-to-Head: Manchester City historically dominated with 4 wins in 5 encounters
- Seasonal strength: Manchester City's superior offense (avg. 2.08 goals) and defense (avg. 0.89 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
- Manchester City had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- The pipeline analysis predicts a high 61% probability for both teams to score
- Manchester City players Erling Haaland (FormTrend: declining) and Matheus Nunes (FormTrend: declining) show a declining form trend
Overview
AFC Bournemouth (6th place, 55 points) host Manchester City (2nd place, 77 points) at the Vitality Stadium. This Premier League match takes place on May 19, 2026, 8:30 PM. Manchester City are in a title race and aim to close the gap on league leaders Arsenal (82 points).
Form
AFC Bournemouth shows strong form with WWDWW in their last five matches, consisting of 4 wins and 1 draw. Their last result was a win. Manchester City is also in top form with WDWWW in their last five games, including 4 wins and 1 draw. The team has secured three consecutive wins. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
AFC Bournemouth has averaged 1.56 goals scored per game this season and conceded 1.44 goals. At home, they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded. Manchester City shows a stronger offense with an average of 2.08 goals per game and a solid defense with only 0.89 goals conceded. Away from home, Manchester City averages 2.07 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded. At the Vitality Stadium, an average of 2.6 goals per game are scored. In 3 out of 5 matches, both teams scored, and there were over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manchester City dominated with 4 wins compared to 1 win for AFC Bournemouth. Manchester City scored a total of 10 goals, while AFC Bournemouth managed 5 goals. The last encounter on November 2, 2025, ended with a 3-1 victory for Manchester City.
Key Players
For AFC Bournemouth, Eli Kroupi with 12 season goals and Marcus Tavernier with 6 season goals and 4 assists are key attacking players. Rayan has been in good form in the last 5 games with 3 goals and 1 assist. For Manchester City, Erling Haaland stands out with 26 season goals and 8 assists. Jérémy Doku recorded 5 season goals and 5 assists and scored 3 goals in his last 5 games. Antoine Semenyo contributed 6 season goals and scored twice in his last 5 appearances.
Goalkeepers
Djordje Petrovic, AFC Bournemouth's goalkeeper, kept 11 clean sheets this season. On Manchester City's side, goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma managed 16 clean sheets in 33 games.
Influences
AFC Bournemouth averages 1.56 goals scored at home and concedes 1.06 goals, indicating a home advantage. The Vitality Stadium is known for games with an average of 2.6 goals per match. In 60% of the last 5 games at the stadium, both teams scored, and there were over 2.5 goals.