Match report →
Manchester City – Aston Villa1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Manchester City
1.78
Total xG
2.90
Aston Villa
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Manchester City | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.57 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.32 | |
| Attack strength (1.34x league average) | +0.32 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Erling Haaland on the bench (27 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Jérémy Doku on the bench (5 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Nico O'Reilly on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Matheus Nunes on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Marc Guéhi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 47% of goal output missing (only 48% available) | ||
| Morgan Rogers on the bench (10 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| John McGinn on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Lucas Digne on the bench (0 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Matty Cash on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Youri Tielemans on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 53% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical squad situation for Manchester City: Only 48% of the usual starting XI strength is available, with Erling Haaland (27G/8A), Jérémy Doku (5G/5A), Nico O'Reilly (5G/3A), Matheus Nunes (1G/5A), Marc Guéhi (1G/1A) all missing
- Critical squad situation for Aston Villa: Only 53% of the usual starting XI strength is available, with Morgan Rogers (10G/6A), John McGinn (5G/4A), Lucas Digne (0G/7A), Matty Cash (3G/3A), Youri Tielemans (0G/4A) all missing
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Manchester City with 51% probability, with 1.78 expected goals
Risks
- Aston Villa has only 4 days rest since their last match
- Aston Villa concedes an average of 1.73 goals per away game
All probabilities
Result
Manchester City51%
Draw26%
Aston Villa22%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Double chance
Manchester City or draw78%
Aston Villa or draw49%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Manchester City: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Aston Villa: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Manchester City: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Aston Villa: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Manchester City with Abdukodir Khusanov: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 4.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Manchester City 4-2-2-2 · Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
Manchester City
- 1 J. Trafford
- 82 R. Lewis
- 5 J. Stones
- 3 R. Santos Gato Alves Dias
- 6 N. Aké
- 14 N. González Iglesias
- 20 B. Silva
- 42 A. Semenyo
- 26 S. Moreira de Oliveira
- 47 P. Foden
- 4 T. Reijnders
Aston Villa
- 40 M. Bizot
- 16 A. García Robledo
- 3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
- 5 T. Mings
- 22 I. Maatsen
- 26 L. Bogarde
- 21 D. Soares de Paulo
- 31 L. Bailey Butler
- 6 R. Barkley
- 10 E. Buendía
- 11 O. Watkins
Substitutes
- 13 M. Bettinelli
- 7 O. Marmoush
- 21 R. Aït Nouri
- 27 M. Nunes
- 8 M. Kovačić
- 10 M. Cherki
- 24 J. Gvardiol
- 11 J. Doku
- 68 M. Alleyne
- 14 P. Francisco Torres
- 7 J. McGinn
- 12 L. Digne
- 2 M. Cash
- 8 Y. Tielemans
- 24 A. Mvom Onana
- 83 B. Burrows
- 64 J. Wright
- 53 G. Hemmings
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