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Premier League

Manchester City - Aston Villa

05/24/2026, 03:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Manchester City
1.8
Total xG
2.9
Aston Villa
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
MCAV

Manchester City

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.57
Attack strength (1.34x league average)
+0.32
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.00
Erling Haaland on the bench (27 goals, 8 assists)
Jérémy Doku on the bench (5 goals, 5 assists)
Nico O'Reilly on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
Matheus Nunes on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists)
Marc Guéhi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
47% of goal output missing (only 48% available)

Aston Villa

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.32
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.32
Morgan Rogers on the bench (10 goals, 6 assists)
John McGinn on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Lucas Digne on the bench (0 goals, 7 assists)
Matty Cash on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Youri Tielemans on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 53% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Manchester City: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Aston Villa: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Manchester City: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Aston Villa: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 5
    Manchester City with Abdukodir Khusanov: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 4.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

26%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad situation for Manchester City: Only 48% of the usual starting XI strength is available, with Erling Haaland (27G/8A), JĂ©rĂ©my Doku (5G/5A), Nico O'Reilly (5G/3A), Matheus Nunes (1G/5A), Marc GuĂ©hi (1G/1A) all missing
  • Critical squad situation for Aston Villa: Only 53% of the usual starting XI strength is available, with Morgan Rogers (10G/6A), John McGinn (5G/4A), Lucas Digne (0G/7A), Matty Cash (3G/3A), Youri Tielemans (0G/4A) all missing
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Manchester City with 51% probability, with 1.78 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • Aston Villa has only 4 days rest since their last match
  • Aston Villa concedes an average of 1.73 goals per away game
Overview

Manchester City (2nd place, 78 points) host Aston Villa (4th place, 62 points) at the Etihad Stadium for a Premier League match on May 24, 2026, 4:00 PM

Manchester City is fighting for the championship, while Aston Villa is playing for a European spot

A crucial victory is essential for both teams

Form

Manchester City's form in the last five games (all competitions): DWWWD

This corresponds to 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses

The last appearance ended in a 1-1 draw away against AFC Bournemouth

Aston Villa's form in the last five games (all competitions): LWDWW

This corresponds to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Aston Villa won their last match 3-0 away against SC Freiburg

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Manchester City scored an average of 2.05 goals and conceded 0.89 goals per game this season

They also kept 16 clean sheets

At home, Manchester City scored an average of 2.10 goals and conceded only 0.57 goals per home game

Aston Villa scored an average of 1.46 goals and conceded 1.30 goals per game this season

They managed 9 clean sheets

Away from home, Aston Villa scored an average of 1.47 goals and conceded 1.73 goals per away game

Matches at the Etihad Stadium average 3.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of the last five matches, and all five matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last five direct encounters, Manchester City secured two wins and Aston Villa three wins

Manchester City scored a total of 7 goals, Aston Villa 6 goals

The last match was won by Aston Villa on October 26, 2025, with a 1-0 scoreline

Aston Villa has been more dominant in recent encounters

Key Players

For Manchester City, Phil Foden (7 goals, 5 assists), Antoine Semenyo (6 goals, 1 assist), and Tijjani Reijnders (5 goals, 2 assists) stand out

Phil Foden shows stable form with 0 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.26

Antoine Semenyo scored 2 goals in the last 5 games with an average rating of 7.03

For Aston Villa, Ollie Watkins (14 goals, 3 assists), Emiliano BuendĂ­a (6 goals, 2 assists), and Ross Barkley (3 goals, 0 assists) are key players

Ollie Watkins shows rising form with 4 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games and an average rating of 7.36

Emiliano BuendĂ­a scored 3 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games with rising form and an average rating of 7.45

Goalkeepers

Manchester City's goalkeeper is James Trafford, who played 3 games this season

Manchester City recorded 16 clean sheets this season

Aston Villa's goalkeeper is Marco Bizot, who played 6 games this season

Aston Villa recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

Manchester City's home strength is evident with an average of 2.10 home goals scored and only 0.57 goals conceded per home game

Matches at the Etihad Stadium tend to be high-scoring, averaging 3.2 goals per game

In the last five matches at the stadium, over 2.5 goals were always scored

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