Premier League
Sunderland - Chelsea
05/24/2026, 03:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.4
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
11%0:1
9%1:0
9%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
Sunderland
Chelsea
The Lab
- 1Chelsea with Andrey Santos: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 2Sunderland with Chris Rigg: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Sunderland: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Sunderland: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5Sunderland: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 10)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
33%
Draw
31%
Away Win
36%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
64%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Sunderland's offensive performance has recently increased, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.2 goals
- Chelsea's goal production has recently decreased, averaging 1.0 goal per game compared to their season average of 1.9 goals
- The mathematical analysis predicts a close match, with an away win at 36% only slightly above a home win at 33%
Risk Factors
- For Sunderland, only 85% of the usual starting XI strength is available, as Omar Alderete is not on the lineup
- Chelsea averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of a draw at 31%
Overview
Sunderland (10th place, 51 points) hosts Chelsea (8th place, 52 points) at the Stadium of Light. The Premier League match takes place on May 24, 2026, 5:00 PM. Both teams are in the mid-table, with a slight advantage for Chelsea.
Form
Sunderland's form across all competitions shows LLDDW. The home team recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games, most recently a win. Chelsea shows WLDLW. The away team achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games, also most recently a win. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Sunderland averaged 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per home game. Chelsea averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded per away game. Throughout the season, Sunderland averaged 1.08 goals scored and 1.27 goals conceded per game. Chelsea averaged 1.54 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded per game. At the Stadium of Light, the last 5 games averaged 2.2 goals per game, with both teams scoring in only 1 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals scored in 2 out of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams. Chelsea won this single encounter. The last match was on October 25, 2025, where Chelsea defeated Sunderland 2:1. Chelsea has been the dominant team in recent history.
Key Players
For Sunderland, midfielder Enzo Le FĆ©e is a key player with 5 goals and 6 assists this season, and his form is rising with an average rating of 7.47 in the last 5 games. Attacker Brian Brobbey scored 7 seasonal goals and 1 assist, his form is stable. Midfielder Granit Xhaka recorded 1 goal and 6 assists this season and his form is stable. For Chelsea, attacker JoĆ£o Pedro is a key player with 15 goals and 5 assists, but his form is declining. Midfielder Enzo FernĆ”ndez shone with 10 goals and 4 assists and shows rising form. Midfielder Cole Palmer contributed 9 goals and 1 assist, but his form is declining.
Goalkeepers
Sunderland's goalkeeper, Robin Roefs, was involved in 11 team clean sheets this season. For Chelsea, goalkeeper Robert SƔnchez was involved in 9 team clean sheets this season.
Influences
Sunderland has a home advantage, as they score an average of 1.10 goals in home games and concede only 0.90 goals. Chelsea scored an average of 1.55 away goals and conceded 1.25 away goals. The Stadium of Light has a history of averaging 2.2 goals per game, with both teams scoring in only 20% of the last 5 matches.