Match report →
Sunderland – Chelsea2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Sunderland
1.19
Total xG
2.43
Chelsea
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sunderland | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.27 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Omar Alderete on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Sunderland's offensive performance has recently increased, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.2 goals
- Chelsea's goal production has recently decreased, averaging 1.0 goal per game compared to their season average of 1.9 goals
- The mathematical analysis predicts a close match, with an away win at 36% only slightly above a home win at 33%
Risks
- For Sunderland, only 85% of the usual starting XI strength is available, as Omar Alderete is not on the lineup
- Chelsea averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of a draw at 31%
All probabilities
Result
Sunderland33%
Draw31%
Chelsea36%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Double chance
Sunderland or draw64%
Chelsea or draw67%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
0:1
9%
1:0
9%
1:2
8%
2:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Chelsea with Andrey Santos: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Sunderland with Chris Rigg: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Sunderland: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Sunderland: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Sunderland: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 10)
Lineups
Sunderland 4-2-3-1 · Chelsea 3-4-1-2
Sunderland
- 22 R. Roefs
- 6 L. Geertruida
- 20 N. Mukiele Mulere
- 13 L. O'Nien
- 17 R. Mandava
- 34 G. Xhaka
- 27 N. Sadiki
- 32 T. Hume
- 28 E. Le Fée
- 10 N. Angulo Ramírez
- 9 B. Brobbey
Chelsea
- 1 R. Lynch Sanchez
- 29 W. Fofana
- 6 L. Colwill
- 21 J. Hato
- 27 M. Gusto
- 25 M. Caicedo Corozo
- 8 E. Fernández
- 3 M. Cucurella
- 10 C. Palmer
- 7 P. Lomba Neto
- 20 J. Junqueira de Jesus
Substitutes
- 19 M. Diarra
- 25 B. Traoré
- 18 W. Isidor
- 12 E. Mayenda Dossou
- 15 O. Alderete Fernández
- 3 D. Cirkin
- 11 C. Rigg
- 31 M. Ellborg
- 37 D. Bi
- 24 R. James
- 9 L. Delap
- 49 A. Garnacho
- 17 A. Nascimento dos Santos
- 23 T. Chalobah
- 12 F. Jörgensen
- 14 D. Luis Essugo
- 34 J. Acheampong
- 55 J. Derry
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