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Liverpool – Brentford1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Liverpool
2.33
Total xG
3.57
Brentford
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Liverpool | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | +1.15 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | −0.01 | |
| Florian Wirtz on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Mikkel Damsgaard on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Yegor Yarmolyuk on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Liverpool with approximately 61% probability
- Liverpool's home offense scores an average of 1.65 goals, while Brentford concedes 2.14 goals away
- Liverpool averaged 55% possession and 4.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
Risks
- Brentford concedes an average of 2.14 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
- Liverpool's form in the last five games shows 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
- Brentford's form in the last five games shows 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
All probabilities
Result
Liverpool61%
Draw21%
Brentford18%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.569%
Under 2.531%
Over 3.548%
Under 3.552%
Double chance
Liverpool or draw82%
Brentford or draw40%
No draw79%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
2:2
6%
1:2
5%
1:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brentford: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Liverpool with Andrew Robertson: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Brentford with Kristoffer Ajer: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
- Liverpool: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Liverpool 4-2-3-1 · Brentford 4-2-3-1
Liverpool
- 1 A. Becker
- 17 C. Jones
- 5 I. Konaté
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 26 A. Robertson
- 38 R. Gravenberch
- 10 A. Mac Allister
- 11 M. Salah
- 8 D. Szoboszlai
- 73 R. Ngumoha
- 18 C. Gakpo
Brentford
- 1 C. Kelleher
- 33 M. Kayode
- 4 S. van den Berg
- 22 N. Collins
- 23 K. Lewis-Potter
- 6 J. Henderson
- 27 V. Janelt
- 19 Dango Ouattara
- 8 M. Jensen
- 7 K. Schade
- 9 Thiago
Substitutes
- 42 T. Nyoni
- 9 A. Isak
- 30 J. Frimpong
- 7 F. Wirtz
- 25 G. Mamardashvili
- 6 Milos Kerkez
- 3 W. Endo
- 2 J. Gomez
- 14 F. Chiesa
- 2 A. Hickey
- 10 P. Dasilva
- 45 R. Donovan
- 11 R. Nelson
- 24 M. Damsgaard
- 20 K. Vassbakk Ajer
- 12 H. Valdimarsson
- 5 E. Pinnock
- 47 K. Furo
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