Match report →
Burnley – Wolverhampton Wanderers1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Burnley
1.41
Total xG
2.83
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.42
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Burnley | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.64 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.55 | |
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | +0.31 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.10 | |
| Quilindschy Hartman not in squad (0 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Hugo Bueno on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| João Gomes on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Pipeline Analysis: The mathematical prediction indicates a very balanced match with a slight edge for an away win (36%) over a home win (36%)
- Poor Form of Both Teams: Burnley recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 5 games, while Wolves registered 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses
- Defensive Weakness: Wolves concede an average of 3.3 goals per away game, pointing to a vulnerable defense
Risks
- Wolverhampton Wanderers concede an average of 3.3 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
- Burnley averaged 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games (avgShotsOnTarget)
- Wolverhampton Wanderers averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games (avgShotsOnTarget)
All probabilities
Result
Burnley36%
Draw28%
Wolverhampton Wanderers36%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Double chance
Burnley or draw64%
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw64%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Burnley with Loum Tchaouna: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Wolverhampton Wanderers with Yerson Mosquera: 0.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Burnley 4-2-3-1 · Wolverhampton Wanderers 3-4-2-1
Burnley
- 13 M. Weiß
- 2 K. Walker
- 6 A. Tuanzebe
- 12 B. Humphreys
- 23 L. Pires Silva
- 16 F. Morris Luís
- 8 C. Ugochukwu
- 17 L. Tchaouna
- 28 H. Mejbri
- 11 J. Anthony
- 19 Z. Flemming
Wolverhampton Wanderers
- 1 J. Malheiro de Sá
- 15 Y. Mosquera
- 4 S. Bueno Sciutto
- 37 L. Krejčí
- 21 R. Gomes
- 7 A. Trindade da Costa Neto
- 47 A. Gomes
- 6 D. Wolfe
- 36 M. Mané
- 11 H. Hwang
- 9 A. Armstrong
Substitutes
- 20 J. Ward-Prowse
- 29 J. Laurent
- 18 H. Ekdal
- 1 M. Dúbravka
- 14 C. Roberts
- 35 A. Barnes
- 25 M. Amdouni
- 10 M. Edwards
- 7 J. Bruun Larsen
- 25 D. Bentley
- 38 J. Tchatchoua
- 14 T. Arokodare
- 3 H. Bueno
- 17 P. Cardoso de Lima
- 24 T. Gomes
- 60 E. Sutherland
- 74 T. Edozie
- 50 J. Abbey
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