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Premier League

Burnley - Wolverhampton Wanderers

05/24/2026, 03:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Burnley
1.4
Total xG
2.8
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
BURWW

Burnley

Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.55
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.11
Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.10
Quilindschy Hartman not in squad (0 goals, 5 assists)

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.64
Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
+0.31
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.4 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.15
Hugo Bueno on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
João Gomes on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Burnley with Loum Tchaouna: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Wolverhampton Wanderers with Yerson Mosquera: 0.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Wolverhampton Wanderers: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

28%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Analysis: The mathematical prediction indicates a very balanced match with a slight edge for an away win (36%) over a home win (36%)
  • Poor Form of Both Teams: Burnley recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 5 games, while Wolves registered 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses
  • Defensive Weakness: Wolves concede an average of 3.3 goals per away game, pointing to a vulnerable defense
Risk Factors
  • Wolverhampton Wanderers concede an average of 3.3 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
  • Burnley averaged 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games (avgShotsOnTarget)
  • Wolverhampton Wanderers averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games (avgShotsOnTarget)
Overview

Burnley (19th place, 21 points) host Wolverhampton Wanderers (20th place, 19 points) at Turf Moor

Premier League match on May 24, 2026, 4:00 PM

Both teams are battling at the bottom of the table against relegation

Form

Burnley's current form is LLLDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

In their last 5 matches, Burnley recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

Their last result was a 0-1 loss away against Arsenal

Wolverhampton Wanderers' current form is LLDLD

In their last 5 matches, the Wolves recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

Their last result was a 1-1 draw at home against Fulham

Statistics

Burnley averaged 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per game this season

At home, Burnley scores an average of 1.0 goals and concedes 1.65 goals per home game

Wolverhampton Wanderers average 0.7 goals scored and 1.81 goals conceded per game

Away from home, the Wolves average 0.7 goals scored and concede an alarming 3.3 goals per away game

At Turf Moor, the last 5 matches saw an average of 2.8 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 head-to-head matches between Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers

Both teams have secured 1 win each, with 1 match ending in a draw

Burnley scored 4 goals and Wolves also scored 4 goals in these encounters

The last direct encounter on October 26, 2025, ended in a 3-2 victory for Burnley

Key Players

Zian Flemming has scored 10 goals and provided 1 assist this season for Burnley with an average rating of 6.83

Jaidon Anthony contributed 8 goals and 2 assists, also with an average rating of 6.83

Hannibal showed his presence with 1 goal and 4 assists, earning an average rating of 6.68

For Wolverhampton Wanderers, Santiago Bueno scored 3 goals and provided 1 assist with an average rating of 6.76

Mateus Mané scored 3 goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 6.77 and shows a rising form trend

Rodrigo Gomes contributed 3 goals with an average rating of 6.67 and a declining form trend

Not nominated for Burnley is Quilindschy Hartman (0G/5A)

Not nominated for Wolverhampton Wanderers are Hugo Bueno (1G/2A) and João Gomes (1G/1A)

Goalkeepers

Burnley's goalkeeper Max Weiß has not scored or assisted in his 2 seasonal appearances

Burnley has kept 4 clean sheets this season

José Sá is the goalkeeper for Wolverhampton Wanderers and has no goal contributions in his 22 seasonal appearances

Wolverhampton Wanderers have kept 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

Burnley scores an average of 1.0 goals at home and concedes 1.65 goals

Wolverhampton Wanderers score 0.7 goals away and concede a concerning 3.3 goals per away game

Turf Moor has shown a tendency for 2.8 goals per game in the last 5 encounters

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