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Premier League

Crystal Palace - Arsenal

05/24/2026, 03:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Crystal Palace
1.4
Total xG
2.7
Arsenal
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CPARS

Crystal Palace

Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 1, 14 places gap)
-0.23
Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.08
Adam Wharton on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists)
Tyrick Mitchell on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Maxence Lacroix on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Yéremy Pino on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 73% available)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.5 goals/match)

Arsenal

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.54
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (1.4 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.21
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 15, 14 places gap)
+0.09
Viktor Gyökeres on the bench (14 goals, 1 assists)
Bukayo Saka on the bench (7 goals, 6 assists)
Leandro Trossard on the bench (6 goals, 6 assists)
Eberechi Eze on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists)
Declan Rice on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists)
Gabriel Magalhães on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
66% of goal output missing (only 33% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.1 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Crystal Palace: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Arsenal: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 3
    Arsenal: 83% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Arsenal with Bukayo Saka: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Crystal Palace with Yéremy Pino: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 6.9 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

29%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Arsenal's Absences: The team is severely weakened, with only 33% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available, without Viktor Gyökeres and Bukayo Saka
  • Arsenal's Current Form: With 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 games, Arsenal is in strong form
  • Historical Dominance: Arsenal has won 4 of the last 5 direct encounters, and the 14:3 goal difference favors the visitors
Risk Factors
  • Arsenal's current goal production is lower (Avg. 1.4 goals), while the season average is Avg. 2.1 goals
  • Crystal Palace's recent goals conceded average is higher (Avg. 2.2 goals conceded), compared to their season average of Avg. 1.37 goals conceded
  • The pipeline analysis predicts a tight game with a 38% home win probability and 33% away win probability
Overview

Crystal Palace (15th place, 45 points) host league leaders Arsenal (1st place, 82 points) at Selhurst Park

Premier League match on May 24, 2026, 4:00 PM

The hosts are having a largely unconcerned season in mid-table

Arsenal is fighting for the league title and needs every point in the championship race

Form

Crystal Palace's current form across all competitions: LWDLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

In their last 5 matches, they recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

The last result was a draw (2-2 against Brentford)

Arsenal shows strong form across all competitions: DWWWW

They secured 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches

The team won their last game (1-0 against Burnley) and is on a 4-game winning streak

Statistics

Crystal Palace scored an average of 1.08 goals per game this season and conceded 1.32 goals

At home, Palace averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded per home game

Arsenal shines with an average of 1.86 goals per game and a strong defense of 0.7 goals conceded

Away, Arsenal's goal average is 1.87 goals and their goals conceded average is 1.0 per away game

At Selhurst Park, an average of 2.6 goals were scored in the last 5 games

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games at Selhurst Park, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, there were 4 away wins and 1 draw

Arsenal dominated recent matches, winning 4 of the last 5 games

The goal difference of 14:3 clearly favors Arsenal

The last meeting on October 26, 2025, ended with a 0-1 away win for Arsenal

Key Players

For Crystal Palace, Ismaïla Sarr (9 goals, 1 assist), Daniel Muñoz (4 goals, 3 assists), and Jørgen Strand Larsen (3 goals) are important attacking forces

For Arsenal, Martín Zubimendi (5 goals, 1 assist), Gabriel Martinelli (1 goal, 3 assists), and Noni Madueke (2 goals, 1 assist) are the top scorers in the current squad

Goalkeepers

Dean Henderson is Crystal Palace's goalkeeper and recorded 12 clean sheets this season

Kepa Arrizabalaga is in goal for Arsenal

Arsenal has kept a total of 19 clean sheets this season

Influences

Selhurst Park saw an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games at Selhurst Park

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 home matches

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