Match report →
Crystal Palace – Arsenal1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Crystal Palace
1.41
Total xG
2.73
Arsenal
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Crystal Palace | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.54 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 1, 14 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +0.16 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 15, 14 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Adam Wharton on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Tyrick Mitchell on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Maxence Lacroix on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Yéremy Pino on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 73% available) | ||
| Viktor Gyökeres on the bench (14 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Bukayo Saka on the bench (7 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Leandro Trossard on the bench (6 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Eberechi Eze on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Declan Rice on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Gabriel Magalhães on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 66% of goal output missing (only 33% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Arsenal's Absences: The team is severely weakened, with only 33% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available, without Viktor Gyökeres and Bukayo Saka
- Arsenal's Current Form: With 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 games, Arsenal is in strong form
- Historical Dominance: Arsenal has won 4 of the last 5 direct encounters, and the 14:3 goal difference favors the visitors
Risks
- Arsenal's current goal production is lower (Avg. 1.4 goals), while the season average is Avg. 2.1 goals
- Crystal Palace's recent goals conceded average is higher (Avg. 2.2 goals conceded), compared to their season average of Avg. 1.37 goals conceded
- The pipeline analysis predicts a tight game with a 38% home win probability and 33% away win probability
All probabilities
Result
Crystal Palace38%
Draw29%
Arsenal33%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
Crystal Palace or draw67%
Arsenal or draw62%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Crystal Palace: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Arsenal: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Arsenal: 83% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Arsenal with Bukayo Saka: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Crystal Palace with Yéremy Pino: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 6.9 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1 · Arsenal 4-2-3-1
Crystal Palace
- 1 D. Henderson
- 17 N. Clyne
- 8 J. Lerma Solís
- 34 C. Riad
- 2 D. Muñoz Mejía
- 19 W. Hughes
- 18 D. Kamada
- 59 R. Cardines
- 55 J. Devenny
- 7 I. Sarr
- 22 J. Strand Larsen
Arsenal
- 13 K. Arrizabalaga Revuelta
- 36 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 3 C. Mosquera
- 5 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 33 R. Calafiori
- 16 C. Nørgaard
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
- 20 C. Madueke
- 56 M. Dowman
- 11 G. Martinelli Silva
- 9 G. de Jesus
Substitutes
- 29 E. Guessand
- 3 T. Mitchell
- 44 W. Benítez
- 10 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 23 J. Canvot
- 5 M. Lacroix
- 11 B. Johnson
- 20 A. Wharton
- 14 J. Mateta
- 41 D. Rice
- 10 E. Eze
- 14 V. Gyökeres
- 6 G. dos Santos Magalhães
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 7 B. Saka
- 23 M. Merino Zazón
- 29 K. Havertz
- 35 T. Hogan Setford
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