Match report →
Fulham – Newcastle United2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Fulham
1.83
Total xG
2.96
Newcastle United
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Fulham | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.39 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.25 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Harry Wilson on the bench (10 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Samuel Chukwueze not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Saša Lukić on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 52% of goal output missing (only 46% available) | ||
| Lewis Miley not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical Squad Impact: Fulham's active goal threat is reduced to 46% without Harry Wilson (10G/6A), Samuel Chukwueze (3G/4A), Saša Lukić (1G/2A)
- Mathematical Favoritism: The analysis predicts a home win for Fulham with a 52% probability, with 1.83 expected home goals
- Tactical Offense: Newcastle United averaged 5.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Fulham's 2.8
Risks
- Low Shots on Target Efficiency: Fulham averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Away Defensive Weakness: Newcastle United concedes an average of 1.92 goals per away game
- Declining Goal Threat: Fulham's goal production recently dropped to 0.5 goals, compared to their season average of 1.3 goals
All probabilities
Result
Fulham52%
Draw26%
Newcastle United22%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Double chance
Fulham or draw78%
Newcastle United or draw48%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Newcastle United with Yoane Wissa: 8.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Fulham with Sander Berge: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Newcastle United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- Newcastle United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Fulham 4-2-3-1 · Newcastle United 3-5-2
Fulham
- 1 B. Leno
- 21 T. Castagne
- 31 I. Diop
- 3 C. Bassey
- 33 A. Robinson
- 17 A. Iwobi
- 16 S. Berge
- 14 O. Bobb
- 32 E. Smith Rowe
- 22 Kevin
- 9 Rodrigo Muniz
Newcastle United
- 1 N. Pope
- 12 M. Thiaw
- 4 S. Botman
- 33 D. Burn
- 23 J. Murphy
- 28 J. Willock
- 39 B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura
- 41 J. Ramsey
- 3 L. Hall
- 18 W. Osula
- 27 N. Woltemade
Substitutes
- 10 T. Cairney
- 23 B. Lecomte
- 24 J. King
- 30 K. Sessegnon
- 8 H. Wilson
- 15 J. Cuenca Barreno
- 6 H. Reed
- 2 K. Tete
- 7 R. Jiménez Rodríguez
- 20 A. Elanga
- 32 A. Ramsdale
- 9 Y. Wissa
- 26 J. Ruddy
- 11 H. Barnes
- 2 K. Trippier
- 10 A. Gordon
- 37 A. Murphy
- 62 S. Neave
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