Premier League
Fulham - Newcastle United
05/24/2026, 03:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
3.0
1.1
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
9%1:2
6%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Fulham
Newcastle United
The Lab
- 1Newcastle United with Yoane Wissa: 8.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Fulham with Sander Berge: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Newcastle United: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes
- 4Newcastle United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
52%
Draw
26%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
48%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Critical Squad Impact: Fulham's active goal threat is reduced to 46% without Harry Wilson (10G/6A), Samuel Chukwueze (3G/4A), SaÅ”a LukiÄ (1G/2A)
- Mathematical Favoritism: The analysis predicts a home win for Fulham with a 52% probability, with 1.83 expected home goals
- Tactical Offense: Newcastle United averaged 5.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Fulham's 2.8
Risk Factors
- Low Shots on Target Efficiency: Fulham averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Away Defensive Weakness: Newcastle United concedes an average of 1.92 goals per away game
- Declining Goal Threat: Fulham's goal production recently dropped to 0.5 goals, compared to their season average of 1.3 goals
Overview
Fulham (13th place, 49 points) host Newcastle United (11th place, 49 points) at Craven Cottage. The Premier League match takes place on May 24, 2026, 4:00 PM. Both teams are level on points in the mid-table, indicating a balanced encounter
Form
Fulham's form in all competitions is DWLLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss), with their last match being a draw. Newcastle United shows LLWDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss), with their last match a win. Fulham's goal production recently stalled (0.5 goals), while their season average is 1.3 goals. Newcastle United's goal production also recently stalled (1.6 goals), with a season average of 1.9 goals
Statistics
Fulham averaged 1.22 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they averaged 1.22 goals scored and 0.87 goals conceded. Newcastle United recorded 1.43 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they averaged 1.42 goals scored and 1.92 goals conceded. Fulham kept 8 clean sheets, as did Newcastle United. Fulham saw both teams score in 20 games, while Newcastle United had both teams score in 25 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fulham secured 2 wins and Newcastle United 3 wins, with 0 draws. Fulham scored a total of 6 goals, while Newcastle United scored 7 goals. The last encounter saw Newcastle United win 2-1 away on October 25, 2025. Newcastle United has been the more dominant team in recent matchups
Key Players
For Fulham, Alex Iwobi stands out with 4 goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 7.01. Kevin recently showed rising form with 1 goal and 0 assists in the last 5 games. Emile Smith Rowe contributed 3 goals to the season's performance. For Newcastle United, Bruno GuimarĆ£es is the top player with 9 goals and 5 assists and a rating of 7.34. William Osula is in rising form with 4 goals in his last 5 games. Nick Woltemade scored 8 season goals and provided 3 assists
Goalkeepers
Fulham's goalkeeper Bernd Leno made 37 season appearances and kept 8 clean sheets, with an average rating of 6.80 and rising form. For Newcastle United, Nick Pope played in 26 games and also achieved 8 clean sheets, his average rating is 6.88 with rising form
Influences
The match takes place at Craven Cottage on grass. At Craven Cottage, an average of 1.6 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in only 1 of 5 games, and only 1 of 5 games saw more than 2.5 goals. Fulham scored an average of 1.22 goals at home and conceded 0.87 goals. Newcastle United scored 1.42 goals away and conceded 1.92 goals