Premier League
Nottingham Forest - AFC Bournemouth
05/24/2026, 03:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
3.3
1.5
1:1
11%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Nottingham Forest
AFC Bournemouth
The Lab
- 1AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- 2Nottingham Forest with Morgan Gibbs-White: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3AFC Bournemouth: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4AFC Bournemouth with Tyler Adams: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Nottingham Forest: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
25%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
64%
Under 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
42%
Under 3.5
58%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The model calculates a home win probability of 44% for Nottingham Forest.
- Visitors' Form Strength: AFC Bournemouth is in strong form, with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five matches.
- Head-to-Head Dominance: AFC Bournemouth has dominated recent encounters and is unbeaten in 5 games against Nottingham Forest.
Risk Factors
- AFC Bournemouth concedes an average of 1.83 goals per away game.
- Nottingham Forest has shown inconsistent form recently, with 2 losses and one draw in their last five matches.
Overview
Nottingham Forest (16th place, 43 points) host AFC Bournemouth (6th place, 56 points) at The City Ground. Premier League match on May 24, 2026, 4:00 PM. Nottingham Forest aims to widen the gap to the relegation zone, while AFC Bournemouth is fighting for European qualification spots.
Form
Nottingham Forest's last five matches show a form of WWLDL, which translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last game ended in a loss. AFC Bournemouth presents a better form of WDWWD from their last five games, with 3 wins and 2 draws. Their most recent match resulted in a draw. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Nottingham Forest scores an average of 1.27 goals per home game and concedes 1.47 goals. They kept 4 clean sheets in home matches. AFC Bournemouth averages 1.56 goals scored per away game and concedes 1.83 goals. They maintained 5 clean sheets in away matches. At The City Ground, the last 5 games averaged 2.2 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 matches, and only 1 out of 5 games having over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In 5 direct encounters, Nottingham Forest has not secured a single win, whereas AFC Bournemouth has won 3 matches and drawn 2. The goal difference stands at 4:12 in favor of AFC Bournemouth. The last meeting on October 26, 2025, saw AFC Bournemouth win 2-0. Recent results indicate AFC Bournemouth's dominance.
Key Players
For Nottingham Forest, key players include Morgan Gibbs-White (14 goals, 4 assists) with a rising form trend, Igor Jesus (6 goals, 4 assists) with stable form, and Elliot Anderson (4 goals, 4 assists) also with stable form. For AFC Bournemouth, Eli Kroupi (13 goals, 0 assists) shows stable form, Marcus Tavernier (6 goals, 4 assists) also with stable form, and Evanilson (6 goals, 2 assists) with stable form are notable.
Goalkeepers
Matz Sels is in goal for Nottingham Forest, having recorded 9 clean sheets this season. For AFC Bournemouth, Djordje Petrovic is the goalkeeper, achieving 11 clean sheets this season.
Influences
The match will be played on a grass surface. Nottingham Forest's home ground, The City Ground, has seen an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 60% of these games, while 20% of the matches had over 2.5 goals. Nottingham Forest averages 1.27 goals scored at home and concedes 1.47 goals. AFC Bournemouth scores 1.56 goals and concedes 1.83 goals away from home.