Match report →
Nottingham Forest – AFC Bournemouth1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Nottingham Forest
1.80
Total xG
3.30
AFC Bournemouth
1.50
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nottingham Forest | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.47 | |
| Attack strength (1.38x league average) | +0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 6, 10 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 16, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Nicolás Domínguez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ryan Christie not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Álex Jiménez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The model calculates a home win probability of 44% for Nottingham Forest.
- Visitors' Form Strength: AFC Bournemouth is in strong form, with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five matches.
- Head-to-Head Dominance: AFC Bournemouth has dominated recent encounters and is unbeaten in 5 games against Nottingham Forest.
Risks
- AFC Bournemouth concedes an average of 1.83 goals per away game.
- Nottingham Forest has shown inconsistent form recently, with 2 losses and one draw in their last five matches.
All probabilities
Result
Nottingham Forest44%
Draw25%
AFC Bournemouth31%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Double chance
Nottingham Forest or draw69%
AFC Bournemouth or draw56%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- AFC Bournemouth: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Nottingham Forest with Morgan Gibbs-White: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- AFC Bournemouth: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- AFC Bournemouth with Tyler Adams: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Nottingham Forest: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
Lineups
Nottingham Forest 4-4-2 · AFC Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
Nottingham Forest
- 26 M. Sels
- 23 J. da Cunha Filho
- 31 N. Milenković
- 4 F. Rodrigues
- 3 N. Williams
- 21 O. Giraud-Hutchinson
- 6 I. Sangaré
- 8 E. Anderson
- 10 M. Gibbs-White
- 19 I. da Cruz
- 11 C. Wood
AFC Bournemouth
- 1 Đ. Petrović
- 15 A. Smith
- 23 J. Hill
- 5 M. Senesi
- 3 A. Truffert
- 27 A. Tóth
- 12 T. Adams
- 37 R. Rocha
- 22 E. Kroupi
- 16 M. Tavernier
- 9 F. de Lima Barbosa
Substitutes
- 25 L. Netz
- 44 Z. Abbott
- 24 J. Mcatee
- 14 D. Ndoye
- 9 T. Awoniyi
- 16 N. Domínguez
- 22 R. Yates
- 27 S. Ortega Moreno
- 45 L. Sillah
- 18 B. Diakité
- 21 A. Adli
- 11 B. Doak
- 4 L. Cook
- 7 D. Brooks
- 19 J. Kluivert
- 26 E. Ünal
- 29 C. Mandas
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →