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Tottenham Hotspur – Everton1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Tottenham Hotspur
1.65
Total xG
3.14
Everton
1.49
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tottenham Hotspur | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Randal Kolo Muani on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Beto on the bench (9 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis slightly favors Tottenham Hotspur with a 40% win probability
- Everton has recently shown a significantly increased defensive vulnerability, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game
- Tottenham Hotspur boasts a dominant home record in head-to-head matches, and players like Pedro Porro are showing a rising form trend
Risks
- Tottenham Hotspur displays high defensive vulnerability with 1.82 goals conceded per home game
- Tottenham Hotspur's extensive injury list includes players such as C. Romero (4 goals, 1 assist) and X. Simons (2 goals, 5 assists)
- Data availability for duels is limited, which complicates a comprehensive analysis
All probabilities
Result
Tottenham Hotspur40%
Draw26%
Everton33%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Double chance
Tottenham Hotspur or draw67%
Everton or draw60%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Everton: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Everton: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- Tottenham Hotspur: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Tottenham Hotspur with Richarlison: 0.9 goals/90 min. Without: 2.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Tottenham Hotspur: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Tottenham Hotspur 4-2-3-1 · Everton 4-2-3-1
Tottenham Hotspur
- 31 A. Kinský
- 23 P. Porro Sauceda
- 4 K. Danso
- 37 M. van de Ven
- 13 I. Udogie
- 30 R. Bentancur Colmán
- 6 J. Lobo Alves Palhinha Gonçalves
- 24 D. Spence
- 22 C. Gallagher
- 11 M. Tel
- 9 R. de Andrade
Everton
- 1 J. Pickford
- 15 J. O´Brien
- 6 J. Tarkowski
- 5 M. Keane
- 16 V. Mykolenko
- 37 J. Garner
- 42 T. Iroegbunam
- 34 M. Röhl
- 10 I. Ndiaye
- 22 K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 11 T. Barry
Substitutes
- 8 Y. Bissouma
- 39 R. Kolo Muani
- 29 P. Sarr
- 3 R. Drăgușin
- 14 A. Gray
- 15 L. Bergvall
- 19 D. Solanke
- 1 G. Vicario
- 10 J. Maddison
- 12 M. Travers
- 39 Adam Aznou Ben Cheikh
- 20 T. Dibling
- 9 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
- 23 S. Coleman
- 45 H. Armstrong
- 7 D. McNeil
- 24 C. Alcaraz
- 19 T. George
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