Premier League
Tottenham Hotspur - Everton
05/24/2026, 03:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.1
1.5
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Tottenham Hotspur
Everton
The Lab
- 1Everton: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2Everton: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- 3Tottenham Hotspur: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 4Tottenham Hotspur with Richarlison: 0.9 goals/90 min. Without: 2.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Tottenham Hotspur: 71% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
26%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
61%
Under 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
62%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
64%
No
36%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis slightly favors Tottenham Hotspur with a 40% win probability
- Everton has recently shown a significantly increased defensive vulnerability, conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game
- Tottenham Hotspur boasts a dominant home record in head-to-head matches, and players like Pedro Porro are showing a rising form trend
Risk Factors
- Tottenham Hotspur displays high defensive vulnerability with 1.82 goals conceded per home game
- Tottenham Hotspur's extensive injury list includes players such as C. Romero (4 goals, 1 assist) and X. Simons (2 goals, 5 assists)
- Data availability for duels is limited, which complicates a comprehensive analysis
Overview
Tottenham Hotspur (17th place, 38 points) host Everton (12th place, 49 points) at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Premier League match on May 24, 2026, 5:00 PM. The mathematical analysis predicts a slight favoritism for the home team with a 40% win probability and 1.65 expected goals
Form
Tottenham Hotspur's form in all competitions is DWWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. Their last result was a loss. Everton shows the form LLDDL, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 games. Everton also recorded a loss in their last outing
Statistics
Tottenham Hotspur averaged 1.27 goals scored per game this season and conceded 1.54 goals. At home, they scored 1.24 times and conceded 1.82 goals per game. Everton averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded per game. Away, they scored 1.24 goals and conceded 1.29 goals on average. At the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, an average of 3.6 goals per match was seen in the last 5 games. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In 5 recent head-to-head matches, Tottenham Hotspur won 3 times, while Everton secured 1 victory. 1 match ended in a draw. Tottenham Hotspur scored a total of 13 goals in these encounters, Everton 6 goals. The last direct duel on October 26, 2025, ended with a 3-0 win for Tottenham Hotspur
Key Players
For Tottenham Hotspur, Richarlison (11 season goals, 5 assists, form trend stable) and Mathys Tel (4 season goals, 1 assist, form trend stable) are important players. Pedro Porro also shows a rising form with 1 goal and 0 assists in the last 5 games. For Everton, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (8 season goals, 4 assists, form trend declining) and James Garner (2 season goals, 7 assists, form trend declining) are notable. Thierno Barry shows a rising form trend with 2 goals in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
AntonĆn KinskĆ½ is in goal for Tottenham Hotspur, who recorded 8 clean sheets this season. For Everton, Jordan Pickford is the goalkeeper, and the team achieved 11 clean sheets
Influences
Tottenham Hotspur's home advantage is reflected in 1.24 goals scored per home game. At the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, an average of 3.6 goals per match was seen in the last 5 games. Both teams scored in 80% of the games, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of the games