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West Ham United – Leeds United3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
West Ham United
1.67
Total xG
3.68
Leeds United
2.01
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | West Ham United | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | +1.10 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.30 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.26 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Noah Okafor not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Anton Stach not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form difference: Leeds United appears more stable with 2 wins in their last 5 games compared to West Ham United's 3 losses
- Mathematical analysis forecast: Leeds United is favored with a win probability of 45%
- Attacking performance: West Ham United's goal production has recently decreased (0.8 goals per game compared to a season average of 1.3)
Risks
- Leeds United concedes an average of 2.13 goals per away game
- West Ham United's defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.76 goals per game
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 71% probability for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals to be scored
All probabilities
Result
West Ham United31%
Draw24%
Leeds United45%
Goals
Over 1.589%
Under 1.511%
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Over 3.550%
Under 3.550%
Double chance
West Ham United or draw55%
Leeds United or draw69%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes71%
No29%
Most likely scores
1:2
9%
2:2
7%
2:1
7%
1:3
6%
2:3
5%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Leeds United: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- West Ham United: 81% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- West Ham United with Kyle Walker-Peters: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Leeds United with Noah Okafor: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Leeds United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
West Ham United 4-2-3-1 · Leeds United 3-5-2
West Ham United
- 1 M. Hermansen
- 2 K. Walker-Peters
- 15 K. Mavropanos
- 4 A. Disasi
- 12 E. Diouf
- 28 T. Souček
- 18 M. Espanha Fernandes
- 20 J. Bowen
- 19 P. Pereira de Jesus
- 7 C. Summerville
- 11 V. Castellanos Giménez
Leeds United
- 26 K. Darlow
- 6 J. Rodon
- 15 J. Bijol
- 5 P. Struijk
- 2 J. Bogle
- 11 B. Aaronson
- 4 E. Ampadu
- 22 A. Tanaka
- 24 J. Justin
- 9 D. Calvert-Lewin
- 14 L. Nmecha
Substitutes
- 9 C. Wilson
- 27 S. Magassa
- 32 F. Potts
- 23 A. Areola
- 30 O. Scarles
- 29 A. Wan-Bissaka
- 3 M. Kilman
- 55 M. Kanté
- 21 K. Lamadrid Briceño
- 1 L. Estella Perri
- 23 S. Bornauw
- 25 S. Byram
- 29 D. Gnonto
- 10 J. Piroe
- 7 D. James
- 40 F. Buonanotte
- 47 R. Chadwick Chaplin
- 51 A. Cresswell
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