šŸ“󠁧󠁢󠁄󠁮󠁧ó æ

Premier League

West Ham United - Leeds United

05/24/2026, 03:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
West Ham United
1.7
Total xG
3.7
Leeds United
2.0
Most Likely Scores

1:2

9%

2:2

7%

2:1

7%

1:3

6%

2:3

5%
What influences the xG?
WHULU

West Ham United

Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.26
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.16
Full strength squad available

Leeds United

Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+1.10
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.30
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.04
Noah Okafor not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists)
Anton Stach not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Leeds United: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    West Ham United: 81% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    West Ham United with Kyle Walker-Peters: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Leeds United with Noah Okafor: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Leeds United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

24%

Away Win

45%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

71%

Under 2.5

29%

Over 3.5

50%

Under 3.5

50%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

55%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

71%

No

29%

Key Factors
  • Form difference: Leeds United appears more stable with 2 wins in their last 5 games compared to West Ham United's 3 losses
  • Mathematical analysis forecast: Leeds United is favored with a win probability of 45%
  • Attacking performance: West Ham United's goal production has recently decreased (0.8 goals per game compared to a season average of 1.3)
Risk Factors
  • Leeds United concedes an average of 2.13 goals per away game
  • West Ham United's defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.76 goals per game
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 71% probability for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals to be scored
Overview

West Ham United (18th place, 36 points) host Leeds United (14th place, 47 points) at the London Stadium

Premier League match on May 24, 2026, 4:00 PM

The home side is fighting against relegation, while Leeds aims to improve their league position

The mathematical analysis predicts a 45% win probability for Leeds United

Form

West Ham United's form across all competitions is DWLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

In their last 5 games, they recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Their current form shows 3 consecutive losses

Leeds United's form across all competitions is DLWDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Leeds managed to win their last game

Statistics

West Ham United averages 1.16 goals scored and 1.76 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 20 league games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 22 games

Leeds United averages 1.32 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded per game this season

Away, they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.13 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 22 league games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 20 games

The pipeline analysis indicates a 71% probability for both teams to score

An Over 2.5 bet has a 71% probability, Over 3.5 is rated at 50%

The London Stadium sees an average of 2.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games at the London Stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the 2 direct encounters, West Ham United has 0 wins, Leeds United has 1 win, and there was 1 draw

West Ham scored 3 goals, Leeds United scored 4 goals

The last encounter on April 05, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw

Leeds United has been the more dominant team in recent meetings

Key Players

Jarrod Bowen is a key player for West Ham with 8 goals and 10 assists, holding an average rating of 6.99

TomĆ”Å” Souček scored 5 goals this season with a rating of 6.76 and shows a rising form trend

Taty Castellanos contributed 5 goals and has an average rating of 6.83

For Leeds United, Dominic Calvert-Lewin is a crucial attacker with 14 goals and 1 assist, rated 6.92

Brenden Aaronson provided 4 goals and 5 assists and has a rating of 6.74

Jayden Bogle showed a rising form trend with 1 goal and 4 assists and a rating of 6.60

Goalkeepers

West Ham's goalkeeper Mads Hermansen has played 17 games with an average rating of 6.72

The team achieved 6 clean sheets in total

Leeds United's goalkeeper Karl Darlow featured in 21 games with an average rating of 6.87

The team achieved 8 clean sheets in total

Karl Darlow's form trend is currently rising with an average rating of 7.18 in his last 5 games

Influences

West Ham United scores an average of 1.14 goals at home and concedes 1.43 goals

Leeds United concedes an average of 2.13 goals per away game, while scoring 1.33 goals

The London Stadium averages 2.8 goals per game

In 60% of matches at the London Stadium, both teams score, and over 2.5 goals are scored in 60%

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.