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Premier League

Brighton & Hove Albion - Manchester United

05/24/2026, 03:00 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.6
Total xG
2.6
Manchester United
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
B&HAMU

Brighton & Hove Albion

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.26
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.10
Yankuba Minteh on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Kaoru Mitoma not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)

Manchester United

Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.00
Matheus Cunha on the bench (10 goals, 2 assists)
Benjamin Sesko not in squad (11 goals, 1 assists)
Casemiro on the bench (9 goals, 2 assists)
Diogo Dalot on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 78% available)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Manchester United: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Brighton & Hove Albion with Kaoru Mitoma: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Manchester United: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Manchester United: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 5
    Manchester United with Joshua Zirkzee: 8.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

28%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win for Brighton with a 50% probability
  • Form strength: Manchester United displays impressive form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games
  • Scoring ability: Brighton & Hove Albion is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.41)
Overview

Brighton & Hove Albion (7th place, 53 points) host Manchester United (3rd place, 68 points) at The American Express Community Stadium

Premier League match on May 24, 2026, 5:00 PM

Brighton aims to solidify its good season standing, while Manchester United fights for top table positions

Form

Brighton & Hove Albion shows mixed form across all competitions (D W L W L)

They achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches

The last game ended in a 0-1 away loss against Leeds United

Manchester United is in strong form (W W W D W)

The team secured 4 wins, 1 draw, and no losses from their last five fixtures

Their last appearance was a 3-2 home win against Nottingham Forest

Statistics

Brighton & Hove Albion scored an average of 1.41 goals per game this season and conceded 1.16 goals

At home, they score 1.43 goals per home game and concede 0.81 goals

Both teams scored in 21 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 18 games

Manchester United averaged 1.78 goals per game this season and conceded 1.35 goals

Away from home, they scored 1.8 goals per game and conceded 1.73 goals

Both teams scored in 27 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 23 games

At The American Express Community Stadium, an average of 2.6 goals are scored per game

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brighton & Hove Albion recorded 3 wins and Manchester United had 2 wins

A total of 9 goals were scored by Brighton and 9 goals by Manchester United

The last encounter on January 11, 2026, ended with a 2-1 victory for Brighton

Key Players

Pascal Groß (Midfielder) recorded 1 assist in 5 games with an average rating of 7.32

Danny Welbeck (Attacker) registered 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games with a rating of 6.99

Jack Hinshelwood (Midfielder) scored 3 times in the last 5 games and improved his form

Bruno Fernandes (Midfielder) excelled with 3 assists in the last 5 games and a season rating of 7.75

Bryan Mbeumo (Attacker) scored 1 goal in the last 5 games, but his form is declining

Kobbie Mainoo (Midfielder) showed rising form with 1 goal in the last 5 games

Not nominated for Brighton: Yankuba Minteh (3G/4A), Kaoru Mitoma (3G/1A)

Not in starting lineup for Manchester United: Matheus Cunha (10G/2A), Benjamin Sesko (11G/1A), Casemiro (9G/2A), Diogo Dalot (1G/3A)

Goalkeepers

Brighton's goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen made 37 season appearances and kept 10 clean sheets

His recent form trend is slightly declining with an average rating of 6.48

Manchester United's goalkeeper Senne Lammens played 31 times this season and achieved 7 clean sheets

His current form is rising with a rating of 7.04

Influences

Brighton & Hove Albion holds a home advantage with 1.43 goals scored and only 0.81 goals conceded per home game

The pitch surface at The American Express Community Stadium is grass

The venue sees an average of 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 matches

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