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Brighton & Hove Albion – Manchester United0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.63
Total xG
2.64
Manchester United
1.01
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Brighton & Hove Albion | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.26 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Yankuba Minteh on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Kaoru Mitoma not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Matheus Cunha on the bench (10 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Benjamin Sesko not in squad (11 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Casemiro on the bench (9 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Diogo Dalot on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win for Brighton with a 50% probability
- Form strength: Manchester United displays impressive form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games
- Scoring ability: Brighton & Hove Albion is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.41)
Risks
All probabilities
Result
Brighton & Hove Albion50%
Draw28%
Manchester United22%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Double chance
Brighton & Hove Albion or draw78%
Manchester United or draw50%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
10%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Manchester United: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Brighton & Hove Albion with Kaoru Mitoma: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Manchester United: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Manchester United: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- Manchester United with Joshua Zirkzee: 8.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Brighton & Hove Albion 4-2-3-1 · Manchester United 4-2-3-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 27 M. Wieffer
- 6 J. van Hecke
- 5 L. Dunk
- 24 F. Kadıoğlu
- 30 P. Groß
- 20 J. Milner
- 25 D. Gómez Amarilla
- 13 J. Hinshelwood
- 29 M. De Cuyper
- 18 D. Tackie Mensah Welbeck
Manchester United
- 31 S. Lammens
- 3 N. Mazraoui
- 5 H. Maguire
- 6 L. Martínez
- 23 L. Shaw
- 7 M. Mount
- 37 K. Mainoo
- 16 A. Traoré
- 8 B. Fernandes
- 13 P. Chinazaekpere Dorgu
- 19 B. Mbeumo
Substitutes
- 11 Y. Minteh
- 19 C. Kostoulas
- 21 O. Boscagli
- 34 J. Veltman
- 23 J. Steele
- 7 S. March
- 17 C. Noom Quomah
- 10 G. Rutter
- 33 M. O'Riley
- 25 M. Ugarte Ribeiro
- 10 M. Carneiro Da Cunha
- 1 A. Bayındır
- 11 J. Zirkzee
- 15 L. Yoro
- 12 T. Malacia
- 26 A. Heaven
- 61 S. Lacey
- 39 T. Fletcher
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