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Championship

Burnley - West Ham United

08/16/2026, 03:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Burnley
0.9
Total xG
2.1
West Ham United
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

13%

1:0

10%

0:2

9%
What influences the xG?
BURWHU

Burnley

Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.83
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.52
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.11
Full strength squad available

West Ham United

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.02
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    West Ham United: 87% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    West Ham United with Kyle Walker-Peters: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Burnley with Bashir Humphreys: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    West Ham United: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    West Ham United: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 12)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

33%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Historical edge: West Ham United won the last two direct encounters, including a 2-0 away win in their last meeting
  • Form discrepancy: Burnley are winless in five games with a stagnant scoring average of 0.8 goals, while West Ham remain stable
  • Offensive pressure: West Ham United averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to Burnley's 3.6
Risk Factors
  • Limited data available regarding current player form for both teams at the start of the season
  • Vulnerable away defense with West Ham conceding an average of 2.19 goals per away game last season
  • Low-scoring venue history at Turf Moor with an average of only 1.8 goals per match
Overview

Burnley host West Ham United at Turf Moor

Championship match on August 16, 2026, 4:00 PM

Both teams start the season with zero points

The mathematical model favors the visitors with a 40% win probability

Form

Burnley are winless in their last five matches with two draws and three defeats

The exact form string is LLDLD

West Ham United recorded two wins and three defeats

The exact form string is WLLLW

Statistics

Burnley conceded an average of 1.97 goals per game last season

West Ham United averaged 1.21 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded per match

Burnley's home record shows an average of 1.0 goals scored and 1.61 conceded

West Ham conceded an average of 2.19 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

West Ham United won both of the last two direct encounters

The last meeting ended in a 2-0 away victory for West Ham on February 7, 2026

West Ham scored five goals in total across these matches compared to Burnley's two

Key Players

Zian Flemming recorded 3 goals and 1 assist in 18 home matches with a 6.69 rating

Kyle Walker provided 2 assists in 19 games at Turf Moor with a 6.76 rating

Taty Castellanos stands out for the visitors with 1 goal in 2 games and a 6.96 rating

Goalkeepers

Max Weiß guarded the net in 22 home matches with a 6.87 rating

Mads Hermansen holds a strong rating of 7.67 in 2 appearances

Burnley kept 4 clean sheets last season while West Ham registered 7 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Turf Moor

The venue history shows an average of 1.8 total goals per match

Both teams scored in only 40% of the recent matches at Turf Moor

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