Match report →
West Ham United – Wolverhampton Wanderers4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
West Ham United
1.23
Total xG
2.27
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | West Ham United | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −1.31 | |
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.91 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.46 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.23 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.12 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.11 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home advantage and mathematical backing: The predictive model estimates a home win probability of 39%
- Tactical edge: West Ham United recently averaged 5.2 shots on target per match
- Historical push: The last head-to-head encounter at the London Stadium resulted in a commanding 4-0 home victory for West Ham
Risks
- Away defensive vulnerability: Wolverhampton Wanderers concede an average of 3.09 goals per away match
- Offensive slowdown: West Ham United recently averaged 1.2 goals per game, dropping below their season average of 1.34
- Limited data availability concerning current squad player form in the provided dataset
All probabilities
Result
West Ham United39%
Draw32%
Wolverhampton Wanderers29%
Double chance
West Ham United or draw71%
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw61%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
11%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Taty Castellanos: 4 of 4 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: 4 of 10 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: 50% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 10)
- Wolverhampton Wanderers: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- West Ham United: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- West Ham United: 71% of all goals in the second half (12 of 17, last 12 games)
Lineups
West Ham United 4-4-2 · Wolverhampton Wanderers 4-2-3-1
West Ham United
- 1 M. Hermansen
- 2 K. Walker-Peters
- 15 K. Mavropanos
- 3 M. Kilman
- 30 O. Scarles
- 20 J. Bowen
- 14 D. Mukasa
- 7 A. Engels
- 10 M. Solomon
- 19 P. Pereira de Jesus
- 9 J. Piroe
Wolverhampton Wanderers
- 1 J. Malheiro de Sá
- 38 J. Tchatchoua
- 34 N. Djiga
- 24 T. Gomes
- 3 H. Bueno
- 7 A. Trindade da Costa Neto
- 5 M. Munetsi
- 21 R. Gomes
- 28 F. López González
- 36 M. Mané
- 9 R. Jiménez Rodríguez
Substitutes
- 34 J. Veltman
- 11 V. Castellanos Giménez
- 35 E. Austbö
- 58 A. Golambeckis
- 63 E. Mayers
- 17 M. Kanté
- 21 K. Lamadrid Briceño
- 49 F. Herrick
- 66 J. Ajala
- 12 B. Traore
- 37 L. Krejčí
- 4 S. Bueno Sciutto
- 17 P. Cardoso de Lima
- 23 T. Chirewa
- 8 J. James
- 20 T. Doyle
- 10 A. Armstrong
- 13 J. Neves Virginia
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →