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Wolverhampton Wanderers – Portsmouth1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.58
Total xG
2.53
Portsmouth
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.39 | +0.39 |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.20 | |
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | −0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.19 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Rodrigo Gomes not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ryan Kavuma-McQueen on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Zak Swanson on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 24% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Wolverhampton score 2 goals per game at home in the league this season, Portsmouth score 1 away
- Table: Wolverhampton are 9th with 17 points from 10 games, Portsmouth are 13th with 14 points
Risks
- Away: Portsmouth have conceded 0.8 goals per game away in 5 league games this season
- Attack: Wolverhampton generated 1.78 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 1 goal per game
All probabilities
Result
Wolverhampton Wanderers51%
Draw28%
Portsmouth21%
Double chance
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw79%
Portsmouth or draw49%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.58 : 0.95, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Portsmouth: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Wolverhampton Wanderers 4-2-3-1 · Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers
- 1 J. Malheiro de Sá
- 38 J. Tchatchoua
- 34 N. Djiga
- 37 L. Krejčí
- 3 H. Bueno
- 7 A. Trindade da Costa Neto
- 5 M. Munetsi
- 36 M. Mané
- 28 F. López González
- 19 R. Said Ahamada
- 14 S. Neave
Portsmouth
- 1 N. Schmid
- 24 T. Devlin
- 5 R. Poole
- 55 M. Dia
- 16 J. Meghoma
- 38 E. Adams
- 37 I. Mohamed
- 11 A. Kamara
- 19 R. Shein
- 10 A. Segečić
- 17 T. Shade
Substitutes
- 27 J. Bellegarde
- 15 Y. Mosquera
- 24 T. Gomes
- 23 T. Chirewa
- 8 J. James
- 20 T. Doyle
- 26 J. Ruddy
- 13 J. Neves Virginia
- 33 G. Konan
- 27 O. Bailey
- 20 T. Waddingham
- 7 M. Pack
- 30 B. Killip
- 22 Z. Swanson
- 25 R. Kavuma-McQueen
- 31 D. Bielica
- 29 M. Milovanović
- 32 E. Kenny
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