Match report →
Watford – Charlton Athletic2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Watford
1.27
Total xG
2.22
Charlton Athletic
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Watford | Charlton Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 22 vs 13, 9 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.3 vs 1 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.08 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 13 vs 22, 9 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.02 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/away: Watford scores 1.2 goals per game at home, Charlton Athletic concedes 2.2 per game away in the league
- Possession: Watford recorded 52% possession per game in the last 5 matches, Charlton Athletic 44.2% per game
Risks
- Table: Charlton Athletic is 13th in the league this season with 14 points, Watford is 22nd with 8 points
- Form: Watford suffered 4 losses in the last 5 matches, Charlton Athletic had 4 draws in 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Watford42%
Draw32%
Charlton Athletic26%
Double chance
Watford or draw74%
Charlton Athletic or draw58%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
12%
2:0
9%
0:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Watford: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
Lineups
Watford 5-3-2 · Charlton Athletic 3-4-2-1
Watford
- 1 F. Ravaglia
- 15 K. Diatta
- 4 K. Keben
- 6 M. Pollock
- 3 S. Coulibaly
- 16 M. Bola
- 39 E. Kayembe
- 5 H. Kyprianou
- 17 I. Bravo Solanilla
- 9 L. Kjerrumgaard
- 10 M. Boadu
Charlton Athletic
- 13 A. Okonkwo
- 2 K. Ramsey
- 5 L. Jones
- 12 B. Koumetio
- 20 D. McNamara
- 34 O. Skipp
- 6 C. Coventry
- 18 I. Mesík
- 9 K. Ahearne-Grant
- 7 T. Campbell
- 11 M. Leaburn
Substitutes
- 23 H. Traorè
- 26 D. Bachmann
- 45 S. Mavididi
- 20 M. Doumbia
- 7 O. Maamma
- 11 R. Vata
- 29 B. Mlacic
- 33 J. Zemura
- 22 M. Payero
- 21 A. Nabizada
- 8 H. Knibbs
- 23 C. Kelman
- 25 W. Mannion
- 17 A. Bell
- 14 S. Carey
- 19 M. Alli
- 44 T. Bindon
- 33 M. Mbick
- 32 A. Mwamba
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