Match report →
Derby County – Stoke City0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Derby County
1.23
Total xG
2.44
Stoke City
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Derby County | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 23 vs 9, 14 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | +0.20 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.19 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 23, 14 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.04 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.02 | |
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Shots: Derby County averaged 4.6 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, Stoke City 4.0 per game
- Head-to-head: In 4 meetings, Derby County recorded 1 win, Stoke City 2 wins and 1 draw
Risks
- Table: Stoke City sit 9th with 16 points from 10 games, Derby County 23rd with 6 points
- Form: Stoke City recorded 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games, Derby County remained winless with 2 draws
All probabilities
Result
Derby County35%
Draw31%
Stoke City34%
Double chance
Derby County or draw66%
Stoke City or draw65%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
10%
1:0
9%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Derby County: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (11 points lost)
- Stoke City: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Stoke City with Ethan Galbraith starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 1 (10/20 games, last 30)
- Stoke City: 8 of 21 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Derby County: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Stoke City: 61% of all goals in the first half (11 of 18, last 12 games)
Lineups
Derby County 4-2-3-1 · Stoke City 3-4-3
Derby County
- 31 J. Vickers
- 23 J. Ward
- 24 R. Nyambe
- 28 D. Sanderson
- 26 R. Hedges
- 4 D. Ozoh
- 27 L. Travis
- 16 M. Fuseini
- 8 B. Clark
- 11 S. Szmodics
- 9 C. Morris
Stoke City
- 1 V. Johansson
- 18 M. Bosun Lawal
- 16 B. Wilmot
- 5 L. Graham
- 2 B. Johnson
- 27 D. Soumaré
- 8 E. William Galbraith
- 17 E. Bocat
- 7 J. McGlynn
- 11 L. Cisse
- 13 J. Devenny
Substitutes
- 20 A. Mowatt
- 10 R. Brewster
- 12 R. O'Donnell
- 15 L. Salvesen
- 29 O. Fraulo
- 33 C. Taylor
- 42 R. Offor
- 19 H. Meister
- 43 I. Gordon
- 13 F. Bilbija
- 24 J. Griffiths
- 15 G. Hirst
- 42 M. Manhoef
- 10 J. Bae
- 9 R. Boženík
- 22 J. Tchamadeu
- 40 M. Talovierov
- 4 B. Pearson
- 21 L. Bombino
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