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Swansea City – West Ham United0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Swansea City
1.16
Total xG
2.98
West Ham United
1.81
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Swansea City | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.68x league average) | +0.61 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.59 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.59 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.34 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| Melker Widell on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Joël Piroe on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Taty Castellanos on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Kyle Walker-Peters on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Attack: West Ham average 2.8 goals per game away in the league this season
- Shots: West Ham had 7.8 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, Swansea 4.4 per game
Risks
- Table: Swansea are 1st in the league with 23 points from 10 games, West Ham 3rd with 19 points
- Rest days: West Ham United with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Swansea City23%
Draw26%
West Ham United51%
Double chance
Swansea City or draw49%
West Ham United or draw77%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
6%
1:3
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- West Ham United: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Swansea City: 7 of 20 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Taty Castellanos: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- Swansea City: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
- West Ham United: 70% of all goals in the second half (23 of 33, last 12 games)
Lineups
Swansea City 4-3-3 · West Ham United 4-2-3-1
Swansea City
- 22 L. Vigouroux
- 35 R. Pereira Martins
- 5 B. Cabango
- 23 S. Welsh
- 14 J. Tymon
- 17 G. Franco
- 4 J. Fulton
- 6 M. Stamenic
- 49 M. Yeo
- 33 A. Idah
- 30 J. Amankwaah Opoku
West Ham United
- 1 M. Hermansen
- 34 J. Veltman
- 15 K. Mavropanos
- 3 M. Kilman
- 5 F. Rodrigues
- 14 D. Mukasa
- 7 A. Engels
- 20 J. Bowen
- 17 M. Kanté
- 10 M. Solomon
- 19 P. Pereira de Jesus
Substitutes
- 3 J. Seelt
- 7 M. Widell
- 10 J. Eom
- 9 Ž. Vipotnik
- 1 A. Fisher
- 46 S. Antunes Eustáquio
- 8 E. Just
- 44 T. Woodward
- 50 C. Heywood
- 9 J. Piroe
- 2 K. Walker-Peters
- 23 A. Areola
- 30 O. Scarles
- 11 V. Castellanos Giménez
- 28 T. Souček
- 35 E. Austbö
- 58 A. Golambeckis
- 61 L. Orford
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