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Norwich City – Portsmouth0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Norwich City
1.43
Total xG
2.58
Portsmouth
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Norwich City | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Mohamed Touré not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 97% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Norwich City scored 2.0 goals per game at home in the league this season, Portsmouth 1.0 goals per game away
- Attack: Norwich City scored 1.7 goals per game in the league this season, Portsmouth 1.33 goals per game
Risks
- Form: Portsmouth recorded 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games, Norwich City 1 win and 4 losses
- Defense: Portsmouth conceded 1.0 goal per game in their last 5 games, Norwich City 2.4 goals per game
- Schedule: Norwich City with 3 days since their last game
All probabilities
Result
Norwich City42%
Draw29%
Portsmouth29%
Double chance
Norwich City or draw71%
Portsmouth or draw58%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Norwich City: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Norwich City: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (12 points lost)
- Norwich City: 63% of all goals in the first half (12 of 19, last 12 games)
Lineups
Norwich City 4-2-3-1 · Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
Norwich City
- 32 D. Grimshaw
- 3 J. Stacey
- 15 R. McConville
- 33 J. Cordoba Chambers
- 14 B. Chrisene
- 16 J. Wright
- 7 P. Mattsson
- 11 A. Brookes
- 20 A. Slimane
- 29 O. Schwartau
- 24 J. Makama
Portsmouth
- 1 N. Schmid
- 22 Z. Swanson
- 5 R. Poole
- 55 M. Dia
- 16 J. Meghoma
- 7 M. Pack
- 37 I. Mohamed
- 11 A. Kamara
- 10 A. Segečić
- 25 R. Kavuma-McQueen
- 29 M. Milovanović
Substitutes
- 13 D. Yongwa Ngameni
- 25 E. Maghoma
- 26 S. Field
- 30 M. Kvistgaarden
- 12 L. Mahovo
- 35 K. Fisher
- 6 H. Darling
- 46 E. Mundle-Smith
- 40 C. Ansen
- 27 O. Bailey
- 9 C. Bishop
- 30 B. Killip
- 24 T. Devlin
- 17 T. Shade
- 38 E. Adams
- 19 R. Shein
- 31 D. Bielica
- 32 E. Kenny
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