Match report →
Bristol City – Sheffield United0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Bristol City
1.27
Total xG
2.51
Sheffield United
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Bristol City | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.41 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.30 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.24 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Patrick Bamford on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Sydie Peck on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Sam McCallum on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Bristol City sit 12th in the league with 14 points after 10 games, Sheffield United 15th with 12 points
- Head-to-head: The last 5 meetings produced 2 wins for Bristol City, 2 wins for Sheffield United and 1 draw
- Defense: Both teams have conceded 14 goals in 10 league games this season (1.4 per game)
Risks
- Attack: Bristol City generated 1.72 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 0.6 goals per game
- Rest days: Sheffield United with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Bristol City36%
Draw30%
Sheffield United34%
Double chance
Bristol City or draw66%
Sheffield United or draw64%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sheffield United: opponent scores first in 8 of 10 games (80%)
- Bristol City: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Burnley: 2 goals (82', 90+1')
- Sheffield United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Bristol City 4-2-3-1 · Sheffield United 4-4-2
Bristol City
- 1 S. Tickle
- 19 G. Tanner
- 15 L. McNally
- 5 R. Atkinson
- 3 C. Pring
- 12 J. Knight
- 27 G. Yah
- 21 R. Cardines
- 10 S. Twine
- 7 Y. Hirakawa
- 23 D. Ballard
Sheffield United
- 1 M. Cooper
- 5 J. Tanganga
- 25 M. McGuinness
- 15 L. Kitching
- 14 H. Burrows
- 22 B. Brereton
- 27 K. Phillips
- 4 O. Arblaster
- 19 T. Chong
- 9 T. Cannon
- 10 J. Ayew
Substitutes
- 17 J. Wallace
- 45 E. Adebayo
- 6 B. De Keersmaecker
- 11 S. Bell
- 40 B. Collins
- 4 A. Randell
- 14 T. Horvat
- 2 L. Eissat
- 20 S. Greenwood
- 11 R. Donovan
- 45 P. Bamford
- 17 A. Davies
- 42 S. Peck
- 3 S. McCallum
- 23 T. Campbell
- 26 R. One
- 33 J. Baptiste
- 7 J. Rothwell
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