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West Bromwich Albion – Blackburn Rovers3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
West Bromwich Albion
1.51
Total xG
2.39
Blackburn Rovers
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | West Bromwich Albion | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.47x league average) | −0.69 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.38 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.20 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| Aune Heggebø on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: West Bromwich Albion are 7th in the league with 17 points, Blackburn Rovers are 10th with 15 points
- Home/Away: West Bromwich Albion conceded 0.8 goals per match at home in the league, Blackburn Rovers 1.2 goals per match away
Risks
- Form: Blackburn Rovers took 3 wins from their last 5 matches, West Bromwich Albion 2 wins
- xG: West Bromwich Albion allowed 1.37 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 0.8 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
West Bromwich Albion51%
Draw29%
Blackburn Rovers20%
Double chance
West Bromwich Albion or draw80%
Blackburn Rovers or draw49%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Blackburn Rovers: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Blackburn Rovers: 39% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 18)
- Blackburn Rovers with Oladapo Afolayan starting: 1.6 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (11/12 games, last 30)
Lineups
West Bromwich Albion 4-1-4-1 · Blackburn Rovers 4-2-3-1
West Bromwich Albion
- 1 M. O’Leary
- 18 B. Pereira
- 2 C. Mepham
- 6 G. Campbell
- 4 C. Styles
- 15 T. Collyer
- 21 I. Price
- 8 J. Molumby
- 20 R. Nzingoula
- 11 J. Morgan
- 9 B. Stewart
Blackburn Rovers
- 22 B. Tóth
- 2 R. Alebiousu
- 6 T. Atcheson
- 15 S. McLoughlin
- 3 H. Pickering
- 8 S. Morsy
- 31 K. Montgomery
- 25 R. Morishita
- 10 T. Cantwell
- 21 O. Afolayan
- 9 A. Guojohnsen
Substitutes
- 19 A. Heggebø
- 23 T. Bany
- 17 O. Diakite
- 3 N. Phillips
- 29 H. Whitwell
- 22 C. Townsend
- 13 M. Ingram
- 7 F. Horn Myhre
- 26 K. Tunde Ruiz
- 14 D. De Neve
- 30 J. Garrett
- 7 A. Kargbo
- 1 A. Pears
- 24 M. Baradji
- 17 H. Carter
- 11 J. Fevrier
- 29 M. Jörgensen
- 27 G. Beyuku Bowutankoyi
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