Match report →
Millwall – Lincoln City2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Millwall
1.67
Total xG
2.66
Lincoln City
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Millwall | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.48 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.33 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 11, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 0.8 season average) | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 18, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| Taïryk Arconte not in squad (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Ben House on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Millwall is 11th in the league with 14 points, Lincoln City is 18th with 11 points
- Home/Away: Millwall scores 1.8 goals per game at home in the league this season, Lincoln City 0.8 per game away
- Shots: Millwall averaged 4 shots on target per game in recent matches, Lincoln City 2.6 per game
Risks
- Form: Millwall recorded 1 win from their last 5 matches
- Away: Lincoln City conceded 1 goal per game away in the league this season across 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Millwall52%
Draw27%
Lincoln City21%
Double chance
Millwall or draw79%
Lincoln City or draw48%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
1:2
6%
3:0
5%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lincoln City: 2.7 cards per game (27 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
Lineups
Millwall 4-2-3-1 · Lincoln City 4-2-3-1
Millwall
- 34 F. Marshall
- 4 T. Crama
- 6 C. Taylor
- 5 J. Cooper
- 3 Z. Norton Sturge
- 49 D. Mazou-Sacko
- 14 J. Metcalfe
- 17 M. Sykes
- 10 C. Neghli
- 22 K. Lisbie
- 13 L. Dykes
Lincoln City
- 1 G. Wickens
- 4 A. Coubis
- 25 D. Elerewe
- 15 S. Bradley
- 3 A. Reach
- 26 Y. Konak
- 24 I. Varfolomeev
- 7 R. Hackett-Fairchild
- 17 R. Street
- 16 D. Jeffries
- 34 F. Draper
Substitutes
- 11 R. Esse
- 12 E. Baggott
- 2 J. Osei-Tutu
- 15 M. Crocombe
- 29 Z. Lovelace
- 45 A. Doughty
- 25 L. Cundle
- 18 R. Leonard
- 16 D. Kelly
- 35 Y. Issoufou
- 6 R. Towler
- 23 J. Honohan
- 18 B. House
- 8 T. Bayliss
- 19 I. Olaofe
- 27 C. Ogbene
- 46 J. Gauci
- 20 C. Elder
- 33 D. Oyegoke
- 11 M. Riis Ladefoged
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