Match report →
Burnley – Wolverhampton Wanderers1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Burnley
1.28
Total xG
2.59
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Burnley | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.68 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.39 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 21 vs 10, 11 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 21, 11 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Zeki Amdouni not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 100% available) | ||
| Rodrigo Gomes not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 78% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Burnley scores 1.4 goals per game at home in the league, Wolverhampton Wanderers scores 1.6 per game away
- Form: Burnley has 1 win and 3 draws in the last 5 games, Wolverhampton Wanderers has 2 wins and 1 draw
Risks
- Standings: Wolverhampton Wanderers is 10th in the league with 14 points, Burnley is 21st with 8 points
- Rest days: Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers each have 3 days since their last game
All probabilities
Result
Burnley34%
Draw30%
Wolverhampton Wanderers36%
Double chance
Burnley or draw64%
Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw66%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Burnley with Jacob Bruun Larsen starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 0.9 (10/10 games, last 30)
Lineups
Burnley 4-2-3-1 · Wolverhampton Wanderers 4-2-3-1
Burnley
- 37 G. Coudert
- 2 K. Walker
- 18 H. Ekdal
- 44 I. dos Santos de Paulo
- 23 L. Pires Silva
- 3 M. Alleyne
- 5 R. Hatate
- 19 L. Ramazani
- 29 J. Laurent
- 7 J. Bruun Larsen
- 9 J. Vardy
Wolverhampton Wanderers
- 1 J. Malheiro de Sá
- 38 J. Tchatchoua
- 34 N. Djiga
- 24 T. Gomes
- 33 G. Konan
- 5 M. Munetsi
- 7 A. Trindade da Costa Neto
- 27 J. Bellegarde
- 28 F. López González
- 19 R. Said Ahamada
- 14 S. Neave
Substitutes
- 17 A. Hountondji
- 8 U. Raghouber
- 27 A. Broja
- 14 C. Roberts
- 10 M. Edwards
- 1 M. Weiß
- 22 O. Sonne
- 12 D. Satpaev
- 30 L. Castell Solé
- 37 L. Krejčí
- 3 H. Bueno
- 36 M. Mané
- 15 Y. Mosquera
- 23 T. Chirewa
- 8 J. James
- 20 T. Doyle
- 2 K. Trippier
- 13 J. Neves Virginia
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