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Birmingham City – Queens Park Rangers3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Birmingham City
1.54
Total xG
2.70
Queens Park Rangers
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Birmingham City | Queens Park Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Carlos Vicente on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Nicolas Madsen on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 80% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Birmingham scores 2.2 goals per match at home in the league, Queens Park Rangers 1.4 per match away
- Shots: Birmingham averaged 6.2 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Queens Park Rangers 4.4 per match
Risks
- Defense: Queens Park Rangers conceded 0.8 goals per match away in the league this season
- Form: Queens Park Rangers remained undefeated in their last 5 matches with 1 win and 4 draws
All probabilities
Result
Birmingham City45%
Draw28%
Queens Park Rangers27%
Double chance
Birmingham City or draw73%
Queens Park Rangers or draw55%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Birmingham City: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 20)
- Queens Park Rangers: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)
Lineups
Birmingham City 4-2-3-1 · Queens Park Rangers 5-4-1
Birmingham City
- 1 J. Beadle
- 26 B. Osayi-Samuel
- 5 P. Neumann
- 4 C. Klarer
- 20 A. Cochrane
- 24 T. Iwata
- 14 J. Solis Romero
- 16 P. Roberts
- 28 J. Stansfield
- 17 L. Millar
- 9 A. Priske
Queens Park Rangers
- 1 P. Charles
- 2 K. Adamson
- 3 J. Dunne
- 5 R. Edwards
- 6 J. Clarke-Salter
- 12 B. Kemper
- 17 K. Poku
- 20 H. Vale
- 18 G. Kamara
- 11 P. Smyth
- 26 R. Kolli
Substitutes
- 7 C. Vicente Robles
- 19 T. Gardner-Hickman
- 21 R. Allsop
- 33 M. Ducksch
- 10 D. Gray
- 2 E. Laird
- 23 D. Fry
- 18 M. Bird
- 32 L. Vásquez
- 25 J. Obikwu
- 40 J. Varane
- 14 K. Saito
- 24 N. Hautorp Madsen
- 23 I. Alemayehu Mulugeta
- 22 R. Kone
- 4 L. Morrison
- 13 C. Ward
- 33 L. Scarlett
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